An active-duty U.S. Army soldier has been accused of using his insider military intelligence on the operation to capture Venezuelan President Nicolás Maduro to place early bets on the prediction market platform Polymarket, illegally profiting nearly $410,000. Gannon Ken Van Dyke, 38, was charged by federal prosecutors in Fayetteville, North Carolina, with exploiting confidential government information for personal gain, stealing non-public government information, commodities fraud, wire fraud, and illegal monetary transactions. Manhattan federal prosecutor Jay Clayton made a firm statement in the charges - the prediction market is not a safe harbor for anyone to make a fortune using stolen confidential or classified information. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission also filed a parallel civil lawsuit to recover the illicit gains and seek trading and registration bans. The Van Dyke case marks the agency's first enforcement action involving insider trading related to event contracts.
From the war room to the betting interface, thirteen bets leveraged four hundred ten thousand in profit
The indictment's timeline pins down Van Dyke's actions from his involvement in confidential military operations to completing his personal bets. He entered the planning and execution phase of the operation codenamed "Absolute Determination," aimed at capturing Maduro, around December 8, 2025. On December 26, 2025, he opened and funded a Polymarket account. From the end of December to the night of January 2, 2026, he placed about 13 trades, investing a total of about $33,000. These bets included contracts directly linked to the upcoming capture operation, such as "U.S. military intervention in Venezuela before January 31," "Maduro stepping down before January 31," "U.S. invasion of Venezuela before January 31," and "Trump using war powers on Venezuela before January 31." On the early morning of January 3, U.S. Special Forces successfully captured Maduro and his wife in Caracas, and later that day, the president publicly announced the mission's success. Van Dyke's contracts were subsequently settled, and federal investigators confirmed his profit of approximately $409,881.
Investigators allege that after profiting, Van Dyke quickly transferred most of the funds to an offshore cryptocurrency vault, then moved them to a newly created online brokerage account. When abnormal trading related to Venezuela's market drew public attention, he attempted to request Polymarket to delete his account, claiming he had lost access to the associated email and had changed the binding email of the cryptocurrency exchange account to a new one.
Military trust and financial market double betrayal
Acting Attorney General Todd Blanch stated that military personnel are entrusted with classified intelligence to complete missions as safely and efficiently as possible, and it is strictly forbidden to use this highly sensitive information for personal financial gain. FBI Assistant Director James Barnacle summarized Van Dyke's actions as using his role to obtain intelligence and trade for a profit of over $400,000. CFTC Enforcement Director David Miller added that all government members, including military personnel, owe loyalty and confidentiality to the government and the American people.
Polymarket has confirmed the identification of suspicious activity and alerted the Department of Justice, cooperating with investigators. The platform also stated that insider trading has no place on Polymarket. Van Dyke is currently waiting for his court appearance in North Carolina, and if convicted, he will face substantial imprisonment, with the specific sentencing to be determined by the court. This case comes as U.S. bipartisan lawmakers recently called for stricter controls on prediction markets, pushing the risks of insider trading in prediction markets from regulatory disputes to the spotlight of criminal courts.
PASA official website continues to track global prediction market regulation and enforcement dynamics, noting that this case is the first criminal prosecution of military personnel using operational intelligence for insider trading in the prediction market industry. As prediction markets expand from sports and cultural events to military conflicts and geopolitical events, the consequences of intelligence leaks have far exceeded the financial level itself.
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