This week's market forecast sees a dramatic split: Polymarket has reached a historic commercial partnership with MLB, becoming the exclusive prediction market exchange partner of the league; meanwhile, Kalshi faces 20 criminal charges in Arizona, becoming the first prediction platform in the US to be criminally prosecuted. Simply put, it's about partnering with mainstream sports leagues on one hand and being sued by state governments as illegal casinos on the other.
Sports leagues embrace prediction markets: MLB signs a memorandum of understanding with CFTC, Polymarket enters the scene
As the new MLB season approaches, Polymarket announced on Thursday a partnership with MLB, becoming the exclusive prediction market exchange partner of the league. MLB thus joins NHL, MLS, and UFC in the ranks of North American sports leagues that have signed commercial agreements with prediction markets. The day before, MLB signed a memorandum of understanding with the CFTC to establish a framework for discussions, cooperation, and information exchange on issues of mutual concern such as match integrity and prediction markets. The CFTC chairman stated that this cooperation would better protect the markets from fraud, manipulation, and other abuses.
Criminal charges escalate: Arizona files 20 misdemeanors against Kalshi
This week, the Arizona Attorney General brought criminal charges against KalshiEx LLC and Kalshi Trading LLC for operating an unlicensed illegal gambling business. The 20 charges are misdemeanors, including four on election betting—related to the 2028 Presidential election, the 2026 Arizona gubernatorial election, etc. Arizona law prohibits unlicensed gambling operations and specifically bans election betting. The Attorney General bluntly stated: "No company can decide on its own which laws to follow." This is the first time Kalshi has faced criminal charges in the US.
Capital frenzy and March Madness: Kalshi's valuation soars to $22 billion, launches a $1 billion betting challenge
Despite being embroiled in lawsuits, the capital market's enthusiasm for Kalshi remains undiminished. In the latest funding round, Kalshi raised over $1 billion, bringing the company's valuation to $22 billion, doubling from $11 billion last December. Following Warren Buffett's classic 2014 challenge, Kalshi has launched a $1 billion March Madness perfect prediction prize. Although the probability of a perfect prediction is only 1/120 billion, in the first round of games, top seed Duke University nearly lost to the 16th seed, causing the odds of Duke winning on the Kalshi platform to drop to 23%. Currently, there are still 83 perfect prediction bets alive. Want to keep up with the latest in prediction markets? PASA official website continues to track.
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