On March 17, two Democratic lawmakers proposed legislation aimed at restricting betting on sensitive government events such as military actions and terrorism. The "Prohibition of Sensitive Operations and Federal Functions Trading Act" would ban prediction markets from offering contracts on government actions, assassinations, wars, or any event that could be controlled by a single individual. In plain terms, it means that national significant issues, especially those that someone could dictate, should not be gambled on. Interested in the latest developments in global prediction market regulation? Visit the PASA website for ongoing updates.
Exposure of Unusual Transactions: Precise Betting Before Military Actions
The bill was introduced at a time when prediction markets are under increasingly strict scrutiny. Lawmakers cited recent abnormal betting activity on Polymarket: before the US-Israeli military strike on Iran, about 150 accounts made highly unusual bets, with 109 accounts betting over $10,000 and 16 accounts over $100,000, one person profiting nearly $500,000. Similar situations also occurred before the US military action against Venezuela. Lawmakers are concerned that these markets could create improper incentives for government officials, who might offer policy advice based on personal gain rather than national security.
Trump Family Involvement: Donald Jr. as an Advisor to Polymarket
Donald Trump Jr. is an investor and paid advisor to Polymarket, and is also developing a Trump-branded prediction platform called "Truth Predict." Lawmakers noted that the current administration is unlikely to crack down on this form of corruption, as they are profiting from it. Polls show that 59% of voters oppose betting on potential government actions, 67% support banning elected officials from using prediction markets, with the highest concerns for contracts related to terrorism and political assassinations, reaching 82% and 78% respectively.
Legislative Background: Multiple Bills Targeting Prediction Markets
The BETS OFF Act follows other congressional efforts, including the DEATH BETS Act aimed at preventing CFTC-registered entities from listing contracts related to terrorism, assassinations, wars, or personal deaths. Minnesota lawmakers are seeking a complete ban on prediction markets, and Arizona has brought criminal charges against Kalshi. The proposed legislation will amend the Illegal Gambling Act, prevent payment processing for banned markets, and impose criminal penalties on US operators or promoters.
————
This article is from "PASA-Global iGaming Leaders," a gambling industry news channel: https://t.me/pasa_news
Original in-depth gambling channel: https://t.me/gamblingdeep
Free data reports: @pasa_research
PASA Matrix: @pasa002_bot
PASA official website: https://www.pasa.news
