During the presidential election in Portugal on January 18, 2026, the blockchain prediction platform Polymarket was ordered by the local gambling regulatory authority SRIJ to shut down within 48 hours due to suspicious political betting. Two hours before the election results were announced, the political betting amount on the platform soared to 4 million euros, and the winning odds of candidate Antonio José Seguro jumped from an initial 60% to 96%, highly consistent with the private exit polls, triggering a deep investigation by the regulatory authority. The core reason for the ban was the platform's unlicensed operation and its involvement in political betting, which is explicitly prohibited in Portugal, marking one of the series of regulatory crackdowns Polymarket has faced globally. Related cross-border gambling compliance warnings and regulatory cases can be referenced on the PASA official website.
The Catalyst for the Ban: Abnormal Betting Data Exposes Regulatory Violations
The suspicious operations of Polymarket erupted during the election period, becoming the direct cause of the ban:
Betting scale surge: Two hours before the official results were announced, the platform's political betting amount quickly exceeded 4 million euros, an irrational influx of funds in such a short time;
Odd fluctuations in winning odds: Seguro's winning probability sharply rose from 60% to 96%, coinciding with the timing of privately circulated exit polls, suggesting possible manipulation of betting using insider information;
Results precisely matched: Seguro eventually won the first round of the election with about 31% of the votes, consistent with the later surged winning odds on the platform, further solidifying the suspicion of regulatory violations.
SRIJ immediately initiated an investigation, confirming that the platform's actions violated the explicit provisions of the 2015 Portuguese online gambling law that prohibits betting on political events.
Dual Violations: Unlicensed Operation + Crossing Regulatory Red Lines
Polymarket's operations in Portugal had already been on the edge of compliance, and this incident highlighted two core issues:
Lack of legal qualifications: The platform did not obtain a Portuguese gambling operation license, constituting unlicensed operation, while local law only allows online operations in specific areas such as sports betting, casino games, and horse racing;
Breaking business boundaries: Portugal explicitly prohibits betting on domestic elections and other political events, yet Polymarket openly offered such betting options, directly crossing regulatory red lines;
Long-term gray operations: Although Portugal does not explicitly prohibit all online gambling, the lack of a regulatory framework's "gray area" does not equate to legality, and the platform's behavior of exploiting loopholes to evade compliance requirements had long planted hidden dangers.
It is worth noting that this is not the first time Polymarket has been controversial due to suspicious activities, as it previously profited significantly from betting related to the Venezuelan presidency, raising questions about market fairness.
Global Crackdown: Europe Tightens Restrictions, US Faces Compliance Challenges
The ban in Portugal is just a microcosm of the global regulatory crackdown that Polymarket is facing:
Comprehensive Restrictions in Europe
France, Switzerland, and Hungary have already imposed bans, followed closely by Poland, Italy, Belgium, and Germany, all citing "unlicensed gambling" as the reason for restricting its operations;
Ukraine recently added it to the national ban list, as the platform allowed betting related to Russia's invasion, sparking controversy.
Compliance Dilemma in the US
By the end of 2025, Polymarket re-entered the US market by acquiring a CFTC-authorized exchange, but Tennessee and Connecticut raised questions, arguing that federal commodity regulation cannot override state gambling laws;
Ongoing legal disputes highlight compliance differences in its US operations, balancing innovation and regulation remains a challenge.
Future Dilemmas: User Fund Risks + Shrinking Market Scope
Polymarket's global operational map is continuously shrinking, facing multiple survival challenges:
User funds unsecured: SRIJ warns that the platform lacks the consumer protection mechanisms that a licensed operator should have, and users may not be able to retrieve their account funds once banned;
Enforcement of the ban progresses: As of January 20, 2026, the platform is still accessible, but the regulatory authority has planned to instruct internet service providers to implement blocking;
Market space shrinking: Although Polymarket still operates in 34 countries, it is continuously losing its core European markets, and its US business is obstructed. If it cannot adapt to global regulatory trends, it may face further isolation.
This regulatory storm reflects that gambling platforms involved in political and other sensitive areas, if they ignore compliance baselines and operate in gray areas, will eventually face global regulatory joint resistance.
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This article is from "PASA-Global iGaming Leaders," a gambling industry news channel:https://t.me/pasa_news
Original deep gambling channel:https://t.me/gamblingdeep
Free data reports: @pasa_research
PASA Matrix: @pasa002_bot
PASA official website: https://www.pasa.news
