Citibank's research in January shows that the Macau gaming market has seen significant growth in the high-end midfield sector at the beginning of the year, even though the overall number of players has declined, the betting intensity of high-value players has increased against the trend. The average betting amount of high-end midfield players reached 28,424 Hong Kong dollars, a 41% surge from 20,160 Hong Kong dollars in January last year, close to the level of the Golden Week in 2025; the total betting amount increased by 25% year-on-year to 16 million Hong Kong dollars. Whale players performed even more impressively, with betting volume increasing by 72.3% year-on-year, and the number of players also grew by 16.7%. However, J.P. Morgan has downgraded the 2026 EBITDA expectations for six Macau operators, with an average reduction of 3%-4%, reflecting the current situation of market growth coexisting with profit pressures. Related Macau gaming market analysis and compliance cases can be referenced on the PASA official website.
High-End Midfield: Betting Amounts Grow Against the Trend Amid Intense Venue Competition
The high-end midfield has become the core growth engine of the Macau gaming market at the beginning of the year, with venue competition becoming fierce:
Core data is impressive: The average betting amount per player increased by 41% year-on-year, with 28 whale players contributing 8.1 million Hong Kong dollars in bets, averaging 290,000 Hong Kong dollars per person, a 49% increase year-on-year, including 6 individuals betting over 500,000 Hong Kong dollars each, compared to only 2 last year;
Venue share changes: Galaxy Macau regained the top spot with a 25% market share, with Wynn Macau, Sands China, and MGM China closely competing, described by Citibank as "equally matched";
Marketing and upgrades: Multiple venues have launched concert ticket incentives, renovated midfield gambling areas in preparation for the Spring Festival, Sands Macau opened the new Pearl Hall, and Parisian Macau has collaborated with Pop Mart for cross-industry cooperation.
Whale Players: Betting Volume Surges, Non-Gaming Services Become the Core Attraction
The strong performance of whale players has become a market highlight, with the integrated service model of non-gaming and gaming showing significant effects:
Scale and intensity both increase: Citibank observed the emergence of "super whales" in various parts of Macau, with total betting amounts by whale players increasing from 4.7 million Hong Kong dollars in January last year to 8.1 million Hong Kong dollars, a growth of over seventy percent;
Record-high single bets: Galaxy Macau's Sky Hall saw a single bet of 1 million Hong Kong dollars, with City of Dreams and Wynn Macau also recording large bets of 850,000 and 640,000 Hong Kong dollars respectively;
Attraction sources: The continuous increase in recognition of Macau's integrated non-gaming and gaming services by affluent mainland tourists has become key to retaining high-value players.
Profit Pressure: Cost Increases Combined with Structural Changes Lead to Lowered Operator Expectations
Despite the bright performance of the high-end market, Macau gaming operators still face challenges of slowing profit growth:
Growth rate scissors gap: Macau's total gaming revenue (GGR) in 2025 grew by 9%, exceeding J.P. Morgan's original expectation of 5%, but EBITDA only grew by 6%, with the adjusted impact of VIP business resulting in a growth rate of only 1%-2%;
Cost and structural pressures: Operating costs increased by 7% year-on-year, far exceeding the normal inflation rate of 3%, and although non-gaming activities such as concerts and sports events drove revenue, they eroded profit margins; the increased proportion of high-end and ultra-high-end gameplay also led to a decline in midfield profit margins;
Institutional expectations lowered: J.P. Morgan downgraded Melco Resorts from overweight to neutral, and SJM Holdings from neutral to underweight, indicating that more profit margin improvement signals are needed before adjusting expectations.
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