The complete exit of POGO (Philippine Offshore Gaming Operators) is deeply impacting the real estate market in Metro Manila. Recent market analysis shows that the largest residential market in the country is facing the most severe "oversupply" situation since 2019.
Inventory backlog: 80,000 housing units to be absorbed
According to research by Leichiu Property Consultants, there are currently about 80,300 residential and apartment units in a state of unsold in the Metro Manila area. What does this number mean? If sold at the current pace, it would take about three and a half years (approximately 42 months) to clear this batch of houses. According to market analysis monitored by PASA's official website, this wave of inventory pressure is very real, with 26,400 units already built and ready for immediate occupancy, and another 53,900 units still in the pre-sale period. From Quezon City to the Ortigas Center, and then to the Bay Area, many places can see piles of unsold housing.
Demand "Ice and Fire": High-end remains strong, middle class recedes
The demand side of the market is indeed a tale of ice and fire. On one hand, overall residential sales have fallen to a near six-year low, with only 24,700 units sold in 2025, 3% less than the previous year. On the other hand, the high-end luxury housing market remains strong, still finding buyers. This reflects an awkward reality: the purchasing power of ordinary middle-income families is being squeezed out of the market by high housing prices. The houses are being built more beautifully, but ordinary people are increasingly "unable to afford" them. Areas previously heavily reliant on POGO foreign staff for rentals and purchases, such as Pasay and Parañaque, are particularly affected, with rents and second-hand house prices both adjusting downwards.
Regional differentiation: Core areas resist decline, POGO-affected areas under pressure
The market differentiation is also reflected regionally. Traditional core business districts like Makati and BGC have the least inventory pressure, showing strong resistance to decline. Areas previously highly concentrated with POGO companies have become disaster zones. Developers have also become extremely cautious, with the number of new residential projects in Metro Manila in 2025 plummeting by 60%. Everyone is no longer blindly launching new developments, but rather busy dealing with existing inventory through discounts and extended payment periods.
Of course, if we broaden our view to the national level, the situation is not so tense. In parts of Luzon Island, Visayas, and Mindanao, relying on infrastructure and urban expansion, the pace of real estate sales is much more stable. Overall, the Philippine real estate market is not collapsing, but entering an inevitable "structural cooling period". With the disappearance of the POGO bonus, speculators exiting, and real purchasing power being tested, the market is seeking a new balance. However, for Metro Manila with its high inventory, this adjustment may still require some patience.
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This article is from "PASA-Global iGaming Leader" gambling industry news channel:https://t.me/pasa_news
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