In the context of tightened gambling regulations and channelization pressure across multiple European countries, Poland's "hybrid model" stands at a crossroads. The online casino market is monopolized by the state-owned Total Casino, while sports betting is open to private operators but levies a 12% turnover tax. The result is that about 40% of the market share is occupied by gray or unlicensed operators, with up to 83% of online casino players having accounts on illegal platforms. Simply put, a nine-year monopoly has instead freed up forty percent of the market for the black market. Reformists call for market liberalization, but the shadow of the 2009 gambling scandal and the overall tightening trend in Europe make politicians hesitant to act rashly. Interested in the unique gambling regulatory dynamics of Central and Eastern Europe? Follow the core policy debates continuously on the PASA official website.
One, The Illusion of Monopoly: Nine Years Later, 40% of the Market Still Abroad
Peter Palutkiewicz, General Manager of the Warsaw Enterprise Institute, frankly states that the legislators initially hoped to protect consumers through state monopoly, but "nine years later, this has proven to be an illusion." The key issue lies in the technical impossibility—Poland maintains a blacklist of about 55,000 banned domain names, but this is just a "cat and mouse game."
Data reveals the truth:
About 40% of the online casino market belongs to gray or unlicensed operators
About 83% of online casino players have accounts on illegal platforms
Many players are even unaware that only Total Casino is legal
The monopoly's share has stagnated in recent years, while the overall market grows by about 11% annually
In contrast, sports betting, due to being opened to private operators, estimates a channelization rate of 70%-80%, with only about 12% share in the black market.
Two, Political Taboo: The 2009 Scandal and the Double Shackles of European Trends
The 2009 gambling scandal is a deep scar in Polish political culture. At that time, leaked recordings showed attempts to influence gambling tax laws, leading to the resignation of several senior officials and the birth of stricter laws. To this day, politicians remain highly cautious about getting too close to the gambling industry.
Currently, only the far-right party "Alliance" includes market liberalization in its agenda, which received about 15% of the votes in the recent elections and may play a significant role after the 2027 general election. Before that, legal expert Marek Płota believes, "meaningful legislative changes are unlikely to occur."
Meanwhile, several Western European countries are tightening advertising rules and raising tax rates, leading to a decline in channelization rates. This provides a ready argument for Polish conservatives: if competitive markets are also struggling, why dismantle the monopoly?
Three, Operator's Perspective: The Paradox of Growth Under High Tax Burden
Superbet, which entered Poland in 2020, has now become the second-largest operator by net revenue. Its Polish General Manager Łukasz Seweryniak candidly states that this is a "contradictory market": on one hand, consumers are open to technology, have a strong sports culture, and the economy ranks among the top 20 globally; on the other hand, the iGaming industry faces one of the strictest regulatory frameworks in Europe.
Main pain points:
12% turnover tax: one of the highest levels in Europe, weakening the attractiveness of legal operators and fostering the black market
Product restrictions: affecting features such as live betting
Despite this, the sports betting market is expected to grow by about 15% by 2026, with the World Cup serving as an additional boost. However, this growth itself could paradoxically be used by the government as evidence that the "status quo is effective."
Seweryniak cites forecasts that by 2030, the current monopoly system could at most increase the channelization rate by 2-3 percentage points, "the model is running out."
Four, Central and Eastern European Perspective: Regional Commonalities, Diverse Regulations
The debate in Poland is also a microcosm of the Central and Eastern European region. This region is often reported in corporate mergers due to its many structural characteristics:
Rapid adoption of digital technology
Strong economic growth
Intense interest in sports
Similar struggles between channelization and the black market
However, the diversity in regulation is astonishing: some countries adopt fully competitive vertical sector licenses, while some retain partial monopolies. Poland is in the middle ground.
Palutkiewicz's conclusion is: "We should no longer pretend that the market is well-regulated." He believes that opening online casino licenses is inevitable, but the timing depends on when political risks subside. In the meantime, the market will continue to grow—the only question is whose pockets the growth will fall into.
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This article is from "PASA-Global iGaming Leaders," a gambling industry news channel:https://t.me/pasa_news
Original in-depth gambling channel:https://t.me/gamblingdeep
Free data reports: @pasa_research
PASA Matrix: @pasa002_bot
PASA official website: https://www.pasa.news
