Trump Media's social platform Truth Social announced a partnership with cryptocurrency exchange Crypto.com to launch an embedded prediction market feature "Truth Predict," making it the world's first publicly traded social media platform to offer such a service. This feature will allow users to trade contracts on political elections, sports events, commodity prices, inflation, and interest rate fluctuations, and will be settled through Crypto.com's North American derivatives platform regulated by the U.S. Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC). This move has raised concerns about potential conflicts of interest, especially after Trump's nomination of a CFTC chairman shortly before announcing this partnership. The platform will begin Beta testing soon and will be launched globally after meeting all conditions.
Partnership Details and Platform Features
Truth Social and Crypto.com have reached an agreement to launch a prediction market feature called "Truth Predict," which will offer users contract trading on political elections, sports events, commodity prices, inflation, and interest rate fluctuations. This feature will be settled through Crypto.com's CFTC-registered North American derivatives platform, which currently offers contracts on events such as the New York City mayoral election. Devin Nunes, chairman of Trump Media, stated that this will allow users to participate in prediction markets within a trusted network and combine social media features to discuss and compare prediction outcomes.
Regulatory Background and Potential Controversies
The partnership was announced a few days after Trump nominated Michael Selig to serve as CFTC chairman, who previously served as the chief legal advisor for the SEC's cryptocurrency task force. The collaboration has raised concerns about conflicts of interest, as the prediction market is regulated by the CFTC, and Trump Media is directly involved in this field. The U.S. prediction market platform Kalshi has previously been embroiled in litigation over the legality of sports derivatives in various states, arguing that these contracts should be federally regulated by the CFTC. Donald Trump Jr. joined the company as a strategic advisor in January this year.
International Market Comparison and Development Plans
Unlike the U.S., Europe takes a more conservative approach to prediction markets. German regulators believe that prediction markets do not comply with federal gambling regulations because some outcomes are subjective and easily manipulated. The French National Gambling Authority has determined that Polymarket products may violate domestic laws and has required geographic fencing for French users. The UK typically treats event contracts as gambling products. Truth Predict will begin Beta testing soon and will be launched globally after meeting all regulatory conditions, with the CEO of Crypto.com expressing anticipation of combining social media platforms with regulated prediction market technology.
