Thailand's political scene is once again turbulent! The youngest Prime Minister at 39, Pei Tongtan, was just celebrating her birthday when she was dismissed by the Constitutional Court and had to step down hastily. Her fate seems to once again confirm the "destiny of the Shinawatra family," and it has filled the outside world with unease about Thailand's future political and economic direction.
A call of "Uncle" sparks a storm
"A slip of the tongue leads to disaster," Pei Tongtan's crisis originated from a call where she referred to the former Prime Minister of Cambodia, Hun Sen, as "uncle" and openly criticized the top brass of the Thai military. The recording was amplified by conservatives, and the media branded it as "betrayal of the country," quickly polarizing public opinion.
Driven by the military and conservative forces, the Constitutional Court intervened, and Pei Tongtan's duties were suspended on July 1, leading to her complete dismissal.
The Shinawatra Family: A Cycle of Destiny
The Thai political arena is described as a chess game, where politicians are both players and pawns. Over the past two decades, the fate of the Shinawatra family has been particularly striking:
Thaksin: From the king's favorite to a political outcast
In 2001, Thaksin quickly rose to the top with his business acumen and political skills, hailed as the "entrepreneurial Prime Minister leading Thailand to prosperity." However, his aggressive reforms and cronyism eventually triggered a backlash from the military and conservatives. After the 2006 coup, Thaksin was forced into exile, turning from a billionaire Prime Minister adored by thousands into a political outcast.
Yingluck: Betrayal under a gentle image
In 2011, Yingluck became Thailand's first female Prime Minister with her brother's support, but she was always seen as a "spokesperson for the family." The rice subsidy policy was the last straw that broke her, and in 2014 she was forced to step down and flee abroad. Some called her a "woman of historical betrayal," while many saw her merely as a political stand-in for the family.
Pei Tongtan: Heir or crisis maker?
Since entering politics in 2023, Pei Tongtan has carried the heavy expectations of her family's revival, but political reality has not treated her kindly. She must walk a tightrope between compromise and persistence, facing a battlefield full of thorns.
The fate of three generations is like different chapters of the same play: Thaksin swallowed by a coup, Yingluck exiled, and Pei Tongtan trying to forge a new path under the shadow of a powerful family, always at risk of falling into the cycle. As the saying goes, "Success by power, failure by power." In Thai politics, they are both manipulators and potential sacrifices.
Multiple Risks in Thailand
With Pei Tongtan's dismissal, Thailand's political, economic, and social risks have surged:
Political risks: Although the parliament will re-elect a Prime Minister, with numerous parties and strong conservative forces, the selection of a new Prime Minister may be delayed, potentially leading to a political deadlock lasting months or even years.
Economic risks: Although tourism has somewhat recovered, capital fears uncertainty, and political chaos will undermine investor confidence, potentially leading to foreign capital withdrawal and increased pressure on the depreciation of the Thai baht.
Social risks: Public anxiety may evolve into street protests, replaying the confrontation between the "Red Shirts" and "Yellow Shirts," deepening social divisions, and possibly triggering a new round of violent conflicts.
Regional risks: Complex issues in the South China Sea and borders, prolonged internal strife may weaken Thailand's regional influence in ASEAN.
The vicious cycle continues
For decades, Thai politics has been spinning in the same cycle: elected rise → conservative backlash → intervention by the Constitutional Court/military → return to political chaos. This vicious cycle not only devours generations of politicians but also traps national development in repetition. Scholars point out that the core problem is not any particular Prime Minister, but the systemic opposition itself—whether the military and conservatives truly accept the results of elections?
The chaos is just beginning
Pei Tongtan's dismissal may just be a new crack in the long night of Thai politics. Who will take over as Prime Minister? Can they stabilize the situation, or will they slide back into coups, protests, and economic stagnation? A resident on the streets of Bangkok said, "We don't care who becomes Prime Minister; we just want to live peacefully. But in Thailand, seeking peace is even harder than becoming Prime Minister."
The chaos in Thai politics is far from over, and the real storm may have just begun.
