Mergers and acquisitions expert Christian Tirabassi recently pointed out that the Brazilian gambling market is rapidly moving towards centralization, and in the future, only 10 to 12 dominant operators may control the situation, while small and medium-sized operators will be gradually marginalized due to high costs and policy barriers.
Tirabassi is the founder and senior partner of the M&A consulting firm Ficom Leisure. He noted that since the official launch of the Brazilian online gambling market in January 2025, there are already more than 80 operators legally operating. Although 14 have been approved by the SPA (Secretariat of Awards and Betting), high entry thresholds—such as a license fee of 30 million reais (about 5.5 million US dollars), compliance management costs, etc.—are limiting more companies from entering.
In addition, the government plans to raise the gambling tax rate from 12% of GGR to 18% and simultaneously advance advertising restrictions, especially prohibiting endorsements by athletes and internet celebrities. These policies are making the survival space for small operators increasingly narrow. Tirabassi pointed out: "In the future, the majority of revenue in the Brazilian gambling market will be concentrated in the hands of 10 to 12 large operators, involving about 30 brands. Companies with annual gambling total revenue below a certain standard will find it difficult to survive in the long term."
He added that giants like Bet365, Flutter, and EstrelaBet can reach a GGR of 200 to 300 million reais each year, and this scale advantage will further widen the gap with small and medium-sized companies. However, he also admitted that small companies can still seek opportunities in specific regions or niche markets, such as operators focusing on a particular regional culture or specific demographic, and may still obtain a stable market share.
Meanwhile, Tirabassi predicts that Brazil's gambling advertising expenditure will reach 2.5 billion US dollars in the next 18 months, with large operators scrambling to capture the market before the advertising control measures are officially implemented. He stated: "Before the regulatory window closes, it is a golden period for staking out territory."
For small and medium-sized operators intending to exit, mergers and acquisitions may become the best path. Tirabassi is optimistic about Brazil becoming the most active gambling M&A market in Latin America, but also warns that many small companies lack a sound corporate structure, which will encounter problems during the due diligence phase of mergers and acquisitions. He advises these companies to improve their corporate governance structure early, hire a CFO and compliance advisors, to prepare for future mergers or capital operations.
Predictions by H2 Gambling Capital show that Brazil's total GGR in the gambling market will increase from 31 billion reais in 2025 to 64 billion reais in 2030, becoming one of the fastest-growing gambling markets in the world. Despite the huge market potential, only a few players can truly win this competition under the multiple pressures of high tax rates, high entry thresholds, and tightened advertising.
