The prediction market industry faced multiple pressures in the US this week, as a conference originally scheduled for autumn in Las Vegas was abruptly canceled by the hotel, while at the same time, the Minnesota legislature overwhelmingly passed a statewide ban. Predict Summit signed a contract with MGM Resorts' Aria Convention Center on April 30 to host the Predict 2026 conference, but three days later, the hotel canceled the event, forcing the conference to relocate to New York. The organizers claim that the hotel was pressured by Nevada's gaming regulatory authorities, but the Nevada Gaming Control Board immediately countered, stating that it had never instructed, requested, or otherwise pressured any licensee or venue to cancel or refuse to host any meeting. MGM Resorts CEO Bill Hornbuckle has repeatedly urged state regulatory authorities to crack down on the expansion of the prediction markets over the past year.
Federal hearing to focus on sports integrity and prediction markets
The hotel dispute coincides with an upcoming Senate hearing on sports integrity, which is drawing significant attention. Tennessee Senator Marsha Blackburn will chair the Senate Commerce Subcommittee hearing on May 20 at the Dickson Senate Building, focusing on the rapid expansion of sports betting and its impact on the integrity of professional and collegiate sports. Blackburn stated that as traditional online gambling platforms and new entrants like prediction markets continue to intersect with sports, legislators need to clearly understand how these platforms operate and what they mean for the integrity of the games. Notably, the Polymarket has not yet stated whether it will attend the hearing next week. This week, the platform officially launched its mobile app for US iOS users, ending a six-month waiting list, but Bloomberg data shows its nominal trading volume in April fell 9% to $10.3 billion, marking the first monthly decline in the past eight months.
Minnesota ban and CFTC jurisdictional counterattack
The prediction market ban in Minnesota has passed both houses of the legislature by an overwhelming majority and is now awaiting the governor's signature. Supporters push the bill to protect children from gambling activities, while critics warn it could trigger legal challenges at the federal level. Meanwhile, on May 12, the CFTC submitted an amicus brief to the United States Court of Appeals for the Sixth Circuit, asserting exclusive federal jurisdiction over sports event contracts in Ohio. CFTC Chairman Michael Selig reiterated that the agency would not allow overly intrusive state governments to erode its long-standing regulatory authority over these markets. PASA's official website continues to track the policy struggles and market dynamics of the prediction market industry, noting that from the hotel canceling the conference to state-level bans to federal jurisdictional counterattacks, the industry is undergoing a multi-threaded pressure test across the US.
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