The U.S. Senate unanimously passed a bipartisan resolution on Thursday by voice vote, officially banning all current senators and their staff from participating in market prediction trading. Initiated by Republican Senator Bernie Moreno of Ohio, the ban, which takes effect immediately, lists prediction betting activities on political, economic, and military events as prohibited behaviors within the Senate. Moreno succinctly condensed all criticism into one sentence - with salaries paid by taxpayers, there is no reason for U.S. senators to engage in such speculative activities. California Democratic Senator Alex Padilla proposed an amendment to extend the ban from elected officials to Senate staff and other officials. Senate Democratic Leader Chuck Schumer's wording attempted to draw a clear moral line for the entire debate: Congress must never become a casino where representatives bet on wars, economic crises, or elections.
From insider information arbitrage to congressional ethics reform
The swift action of the Senate follows a series of scandals involving profits from non-public information in prediction markets. A U.S. Army soldier has pleaded not guilty to fraud charges for allegedly profiting about $400,000 on Polymarket from a military operation that was about to overthrow Venezuelan President Maduro; other reports have revealed suspicious trading patterns linked to geopolitical events, including concentrated betting in new accounts before the ceasefire negotiations between the U.S. and Iran on April 7, resulting in substantial profits. The Commodity Futures Trading Commission has charged a soldier with insider trading, while Kalshi has fined three political candidates for betting on their own election outcomes.
These cases have shifted the regulatory debate over prediction markets from an abstract jurisdictional issue to a governance topic concerning the personal conduct of legislators. Discussions about limiting stock trading by members of Congress have continued internally for many years, although in 2024, 113 members reported thousands of transactions involving billions of shares, past disclosure requirements have not been consistently adhered to.
Industry giants express support, Trump family emerges
Interestingly, the direct stakeholders affected by the ban—the prediction market platforms—are not opposing the Senate. Tarek Mansour, CEO of Kalshi, called the rule "a big step in enhancing market trust by establishing it as an industry standard," while Polymarket explicitly stated "full support for this move," adding that its rulebook and terms of service had already prohibited such activities. Meanwhile, the industry is forming close ties with the Trump family. Donald Trump Jr. serves as an advisor to both Polymarket and Kalshi, and the former president's social media platform, Truth Social, is preparing to launch a cryptocurrency prediction market called Truth Predict.
PASA official website continues to track global prediction market regulation and governance dynamics, noting that the U.S. Senate's action may constitute an important institutional precedent—when the industry itself expresses support for compliance image maintenance by limiting insider participation, similar bans extending to the House of Representatives and the executive and judicial branches may just be a matter of time.
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This article is from "PASA-Global iGaming Leader" gambling industry news channel: https://t.me/pasa_news
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