The latest data released by the Macau Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau reveals a typical seasonal pullback. In April, gross gaming revenue reached 19.9 billion Macau patacas (approximately 2.47 billion US dollars), a 5.5% increase from the same period last year, but a 12% decrease compared to 22.61 billion Macau patacas (approximately 2.8 billion US dollars) in March. The core driver behind this monthly discrepancy lies in the holiday gaps in the Chinese mainland travel cycle—April only had a three-day short holiday for Qingming Festival, which slightly overlapped with Easter, but the latter had very limited pull on the core mainland customer base. From a broader perspective, Macau's cumulative gaming revenue for the first four months of 2026 has already reached about 85.8 billion Macau patacas (approximately 10.6 billion US dollars), a year-on-year increase of 12.1%. The government's annual target is set at 236 billion Macau patacas (approximately 29.4 billion US dollars), with a year-on-year increase of about 3.5%, while institutions including Seaport Research forecast an annual growth rate of 5% to 8%, corresponding to annual revenues returning to the range of 260 billion to 267 billion Macau patacas, a level not seen since 2017.
First four months cumulative increase of 12.1%, annual forecast returns to 2017 peak
The government expects this year's gaming-related tax revenue to be about 92.5 billion Macau patacas (approximately 11.5 billion US dollars), with nearly 28% completed by the end of the first quarter. Seaport Research predicts in its report that the annual growth rate for 2026 will be 7%, with growth of 9.8% in the first half of the year and slowing to 4.4% in the second half, and warns that if demand or liquidity does not show substantial improvement, growth will face greater high-base pressure in the coming months. Another industry outlook points out that favorable visa policies, continuous expansion of cultural and entertainment offerings, and ongoing non-gaming investments will support the growth of gaming tourism, although the growth rate will slow, the overall trend remains robust.
The number of VIP gamblers increased by 63% year-on-year, but the base effect pressure is approaching
Beyond macro data, a survey conducted by banking institutions revealed ongoing activity in the high-end gambler sector. In April, the number of VIP baccarat players observed jumped from 19 in the same period last year to 31, an increase of 63.2%. This data contrasts sharply with the high-base period that will begin in May—last year's growth base was significantly raised, and if there is no additional demand or liquidity boost, growth will face greater slowdown pressure in the coming months. Analysts expect operators to manage spending and promotional budgets more cautiously to cope with profit margins being squeezed from both ends.
PASA official website continues to track monthly performance fluctuations and structural trends in the Asia-Pacific gaming market, noting that Macau is currently transitioning from a high-speed recovery period to a more stable growth phase, shifting market focus from "whether it can recover" to "whether it can maintain on a higher base".
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