The prediction market has attracted significant attention globally. In April 2026, the Gibraltar government announced the issuance of the first prediction market operator license to Predict Street Ltd.
The news quickly became a focal point in the industry, especially as many European regulators are still considering restrictions on such platforms.
This decision by Gibraltar reflects a subtle shift in the attitude of mature gambling markets towards prediction markets. These markets are mostly classified as gambling activities, and now some regions are starting to regulate operations by issuing licenses.
Nigel Feetham, Minister of Justice, Trade, and Industry in Gibraltar, clearly stated in parliament that this move is an important step in the diversification strategy of the local gambling and financial services ecosystem. He mentioned that he expedited the application process immediately after attending the Hong Kong Consensus Conference last month. 🔴 Predict Street Ltd has now appeared in the directory of licensed gambling intermediaries in Gibraltar.
➡️ Predict Street Ltd claims to be the official prediction market partner of the 2026 FIFA World Cup and is currently opening user registrations for an early experience opportunity, with technical support from ADI Chain, a blockchain provider based in Abu Dhabi.
🇬🇮 Why has Gibraltar chosen to open up at this time?
The core reason lies in economic pressure. The UK recently significantly raised the remote gambling tax, which has a direct impact on Gibraltar's online gambling industry. The new tax rate, effective from April 2026, nearly doubles the online casino tax rate from 21% to 40%, and the online sports betting tax rate will rise from 15% to 25% starting from April 2027.
Gibraltar has been discussing how to protect local finances, and issuing prediction market licenses is intended to offset the revenue loss from the tax increase while continuing to promote local economic growth.
Gibraltar has long been an important online gambling hub in Europe, primarily serving the UK market. 🔴 The introduction of prediction markets allows existing license holders to easily expand their businesses and attracts new players. By explicitly including prediction markets under the existing 2005 Gambling Act framework and recognizing the products as gambling, regulatory clarity is achieved, avoiding grey areas.
🇲🇹 Malta is also actively assessing similar regulatory possibilities
As another major online gambling hub in Europe, Silvio Schembri, the Minister of Economy in Malta, publicly stated that Malta is considering establishing a dedicated regulatory framework for prediction platforms. He specifically mentioned that the industry has strong global growth momentum and significant innovative potential.
Malta hopes to resolve the debate over whether prediction markets are gambling or financial services through clear rules, while seizing the opportunities brought by market growth.
🇪🇺 Other European countries currently remain restrictive
EU member states such as Germany, the Netherlands, Romania, France, and Portugal have explicitly banned certain prediction platforms, such as #Polymarket. This makes Gibraltar's move particularly notable, as the global popularity of prediction markets is rapidly rising, and mature gambling markets that continue to completely exclude them may miss out on growth opportunities.
Not only can it bring direct tax revenue, but it also drives related industries such as blockchain and payments. Both Gibraltar and Malta hope to use this to compensate for the gap caused by the increase in traditional gambling taxes, while enhancing local employment and investment attractiveness. Gibraltar's open policy may attract more international players to establish studios.
🔴 As the 2026 World Cup approaches, platforms like Predict Street Ltd will experience a traffic peak. If other operators decide to enter this field, or if large US companies choose Gibraltar as their European springboard, the entire industry landscape will change. Once Malta's regulatory framework is established, it will further consolidate Europe's position as a global center for gambling innovation.
In the coming years, as more regions follow suit, prediction markets are likely to become an important part of the mainstream gambling ecosystem.
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