While the United States is still arguing over whether the prediction markets should be regulated by the federal government or the states, Brazil has taken a completely different path. The Brazilian Securities and Exchange Commission (CVM) recently approved the country's first prediction market by the B3 stock exchange, but only for professional investors with assets over 10 million reais. In plain terms, it means treating event contracts as high-end financial derivatives, not accessible to the average player for now. B3 plans to go live in the first quarter, initially offering "yes/no" binary options for the dollar, Ibovespa index, and Bitcoin. Interested in the diverse regulatory paths of global prediction markets? Follow the PASA official website for ongoing tracking of policy divergence across countries.
One, Brazilian Path: Securities Regulation, Exclusively for Professional Players
CVM's approval explicitly includes prediction markets within the securities regulatory framework, rather than the gambling regulatory system initiated by the Ministry of Finance last year. B3 President Gilson Finkelsztain stated: "The world of derivatives is increasingly approaching the boundaries of prediction markets." This choice stands in stark contrast to the chaos in the United States.
The first batch of products will be aimed at:
Professional investors: individual assets must exceed 10 million reais
Initial targets: binary options for the dollar, Ibovespa index, and Bitcoin
Two, Gray Areas and Potential Competitors
Although B3 is the first federally approved prediction market, Brazil is not a blank slate. According to BNL Data, platforms like Previa and Palpitada have been operating futures-like markets in regulatory gray areas. Futuriza also announced it will launch in March, offering contracts on political, economic, sports, and entertainment events.
International giants are currently holding off, but Kalshi may enter Brazil this year.
Three, American Dilemma: 90% of Trading Volume is Sports, States are Blocking
Compared to the United States, Brazil's "securitization" path is particularly clear. In the US, although the CFTC supports federal regulation as a priority, state lawsuits continue:
The Ninth Circuit Court of Appeals this week supported the Nevada Gaming Control Board, allowing it to prohibit Kalshi from offering sports contracts in the state
About 90% of Kalshi's trading volume comes from sports events
Courts in Maryland, Massachusetts, New Jersey, New York, and other states have made rulings favorable to regulatory agencies
The only exception is California, where judges determined that event contracts under CFTC regulation are not considered gambling and do not violate the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act.
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This article is from "PASA-Global iGaming Leaders," a gambling industry news channel: https://t.me/pasa_news
Original in-depth gambling channel: https://t.me/gamblingdeep
Free data reports: @pasa_research
PASA Matrix: @pasa002_bot
PASA official website: https://www.pasa.news
