Nigeria is hailed as one of Africa's most promising gambling markets—with a young population, widespread mobile usage, and a fervent sports atmosphere, it seems like a goldmine. However, Ben Koff, the Chief Marketing Officer at Logifuture, throws cold water on the idea: The explosive growth of sports betting has peaked, and it's not easy for new players to come in and share the pie. Koff, who oversees Logifuture, the local leader Bet9ja's technology provider, openly states that the market is tightly held by a few brands, "Even some internationally renowned operators tried to step in and found they couldn't make quick money." Plainly put, Nigeria is not for speculators, but welcomes those willing to establish long-term roots. Where is the next growth wave? Koff bets on online casinos, whose growth rate will surpass sports betting in the next five years. Want to delve into the real thresholds and opportunities of the African gambling market? PASA's official website continues to dissect the underlying logic of emerging markets.
Market Threshold: Not Everyone Can "Step In"
The allure of Nigeria is obvious, but Koff warns: "The lions" are already in place, and newcomers can only eat dust.
Top Monopoly: A few local brands occupy the vast majority of the market share, with Bet9ja already a national IP, deeply rooted in culture and daily life.
Failed Testers: Several well-known international operators tried to "step in and test" thinking they could make quick money, but all failed miserably.
Survival Rule: Must have a local professional team, deep cultural understanding, and be prepared for long-term investment—this is not a "touch-and-go" market.
Growth Shift: From "Snatching New Customers" to "Keeping Old Customers"
As the market matures, player behavior is also changing:
Multiple Accounts Become the Norm: Online users generally have more than 2 gambling accounts, diluting loyalty.
Retail Remains Solid: Physical betting stations, due to their social nature, have relatively higher customer stickiness.
Competition Shifts Focus: For top brands like Bet9ja, the core task has shifted from attracting new customers to retaining them—how to keep old users active is more crucial than acquiring new ones.
"The rules of the game have changed," Koff says, "You have to use content and experience to keep people."
Next Stop: Online Casinos Take Over from Sports Betting
Sports betting is still Nigeria's absolute mainstay, but Koff judges its high-growth period is over:
"The growth rate of the past decade won't happen again. In the next five years, the growth rate of online casinos will clearly outpace sports betting."
As for whether casinos can catch up with sports in terms of share, Koff remains cautious—cultural acceptance is a variable. But Bet9ja is already testing the waters with virtual football games, extending users' passion for real events to simulated scenarios:
Betting on Manchester United vs. Chelsea, during the few hours before the game starts, users can use simulators to real-time play out the results.
Engagement is almost on par with sports betting itself, proving that the "sports + simulation" hybrid gameplay has great potential.
Regulatory Changes: Federal Exit, State Power Ascends
In November 2024, the Supreme Court of Nigeria ruled to abolish the "Lottery Law," ending the centralized regulatory framework at the federal level. President Bola Tinubu subsequently made it clear:
"Forget centralized lottery power. That's a matter for the states, don't overstep."
This means that future Nigerian gambling regulation will be decentralized to the states, forming a fragmented pattern of 36 states plus the federal capital territory. For operators, compliance complexity suddenly increases, but it may also spur new opportunities for state-level cooperation. Whoever can quickly adapt to the "one state, one policy" new environment will take the lead in the next phase.
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This article is from "PASA-Global iGaming Leaders," a gambling industry news channel: https://t.me/pasa_news
Original deep gambling channel: https://t.me/gamblingdeep
Free data reports: @pasa_research
PASA Matrix: @pasa002_bot
PASA official website: https://www.pasa.news
