In 2025, China's lottery market set a new annual sales record, but the growth rate slowed significantly to 0.7%, in stark contrast to the robust growth of 7.6% in 2024. During the same period, the Constitutional Court of Colombia suspended an emergency decree that included a 19% VAT on gambling, with online gambling temporarily subject to only a 15% standard tax, and the probability of reinstating this VAT in the 2026 election year is extremely low. The gambling-related markets in both countries show a "stable and adjusted" situation, and relevant cross-border gambling and lottery industry compliance cases can be referenced on the PASA official website.
China's Lottery Market: Record Sales, Significantly Cooled Growth
Official data released by China's Ministry of Finance shows that although the lottery market reached a sales peak, its growth momentum has significantly weakened:
Core sales data: In 2025, national lottery sales reached 6.28 trillion yuan (about 903.6 billion USD), surpassing the 6.23 trillion yuan (about 897.1 billion USD) in 2024, but the year-on-year growth rate was only 0.7%, far below the previous year's 7.6%;
Performance by category: ・Sports lottery dominated, with sales of 4.19 trillion yuan (about 603.4 billion USD), a year-on-year increase of 0.9%; ・Welfare lottery sales were 2.09 trillion yuan (about 300.1 billion USD), with a year-on-year increase of only 0.3%; ・Instant lottery became the main growth driver, soaring 13% year-on-year to 1.31 trillion yuan (about 188.7 billion USD); Digital, sports "betting", and keno lotteries all declined, with decreases of 0.7%, 3.2%, and 0.9%, respectively;
Regional distribution: 21 provinces saw year-on-year sales growth, with Shandong, Hubei, and Henan leading; Jiangxi, Zhejiang, Sichuan, and other 10 provinces experienced declines;
Regulatory requirements: The Ministry of Finance requires lottery management departments to closely monitor market dynamics, strengthen sales management, and the financial departments need to enhance supervision to ensure orderly market operation and sustainable industry development.
Colombia's Gambling VAT: Emergency Decree Suspended, Difficult to Restart in Election Year
The policy adjustment surrounding the gambling VAT in Colombia has attracted industry attention, focusing on constitutional disputes and the political environment of the election year:
Core policy changes: On January 29, the Constitutional Court, citing doubts about constitutionality, suspended Emergency Decree No. 1390, which included a 19% VAT on online gambling's total revenue (GGR), currently requiring only a 15% standard GGR tax, with the suspension to last until the full court's final decision;
Tax policy background: The 19% VAT was first introduced in February of the previous year, initially levied on betting deposits aimed at covering the governance costs of internal unrest in the Katakomb region, later shifting to GGR collection, with the original policy expiring on December 31, 2025;
Most likely scenario (most favorable to operators): VAT exemptions become normalized, retaining only the 15% gambling tax, with the government postponing new tax proposals until after the 2026 elections;
Low probability scenario: Restoration of VAT based on deposits, but requiring new legislation or decrees, difficult to achieve in the short term;
Very low probability scenario: Reinstatement of VAT related to GGR through regular tax laws, but 2026 is an election year, making new tax legislation "politically very difficult";
Three potential scenarios (analyzed by Juan Camilo Carrasco, partner at Sora Lawyers):
Key resistance: In 2025, the government's attempt to permanently enact the deposit VAT was rejected by the Senate's Fourth Committee with a 9-4 vote, with widespread congressional opposition to taxing the gambling industry; the central government expressed dissatisfaction with the suspension of the decree, but breakthroughs are unlikely in the short term, and it is highly probable that progress will need to wait until the new government takes office in 2027.
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This article is from "PASA-Global iGaming Leaders" gambling industry news channel:https://t.me/pasa_news
Original in-depth gambling channel:https://t.me/gamblingdeep
Free data reports: @pasa_research
PASA Matrix: @pasa002_bot
PASA official website: https://www.pasa.news
