Google announced that from January 21, it will allow federally regulated prediction markets to advertise on its platform, a policy shift that reclassifies prediction markets from gambling restrictions to financial services advertising rules. The new rule is not an unrestricted opening, but sets strict entry conditions, only for operators authorized by the federal government, with Nevada being explicitly excluded due to legal disputes. Previously, Google had integrated data from prediction markets such as Kalshi and Polymarket into its financial tools and search functions, allowing users to query predictions on economics, elections, and more. This opening of advertising is a further deepening of cooperation between the two parties. This change is seen by the industry as an important signal that prediction markets are moving towards the mainstream, and compliance cases and regulatory details for related prediction markets can be referenced on the PASA official website.
Entry Threshold: Federal Regulation is the Core Premise
Not all prediction markets can enjoy advertising privileges, Google clearly states that only operators meeting federal regulatory requirements can apply:
Must be approved by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC) as a designated contract market for event contracts, or registered with the National Futures Association (NFA) as a broker accessing compliant exchanges;
The entry standards focus on regulatory qualifications rather than contract themes, and operators in offshore platforms or regulatory gray areas, even if large in scale, are excluded;
Separate applications for certification are required, proving compliance with Google's advertising policies, applicable financial regulations, and local laws, with each target jurisdiction needing to be reported separately.
Google emphasizes that this policy is unrelated to its previous cooperation with Kalshi and Polymarket, but is based on a redefinition of the regulatory nature of prediction markets.
Restriction Clauses: Dual Constraints of Geography and Products
The new rules also specify multiple prohibitive clauses to avoid risk spread:
Geographical restrictions: Nevada is directly excluded, as the state is currently in legal disputes with prediction market operators, with Kalshi being banned from offering sports-related contracts there;
Product restrictions: Binary options are completely banned from advertising, including affiliated promotions, review sites, and other related content;
Compliance baseline: Unregulated prediction platforms, tokenized prediction services, and consulting analysis businesses are all ineligible for entry, aiming to avoid the advertising fraud issues of high-risk financial products previously.
These restrictions make the new rules "strict and orderly," giving opportunities to compliant platforms while safeguarding the bottom line of risk control.
Industry Impact: Prediction Markets Expected to Accelerate Growth
Industry observers believe that Google's policy adjustment will bring significant growth opportunities to compliant prediction markets:
Mainstream exposure boost: After obtaining advertising permissions, prediction markets can reach a broader audience, potentially changing the previously "niche" status;
Growth potential highlighted: Thomas Eves, co-founder of RAAS Lab, pointed out that prediction markets are seen as a "cleaner alternative to gambling," potentially overtaking traditional sports betting;
National coverage advantage: Relying on CFTC's federal regulatory authority, prediction market ads can be deployed nationwide, saving substantial costs compared to traditional gambling brands that need to comply state by state.
Although currently applicable only in the U.S. market, this policy may attract global attention, with operators in other regions closely monitoring related developments.
————
This article is from "PASA-Global iGaming Leaders," a gambling industry news channel: https://t.me/pasa_news
Original in-depth gambling channel: https://t.me/gamblingdeep
Free data reports: @pasa_research
PASA Matrix: @pasa002_bot
PASA official website: https://www.pasa.news
