Recently at the Macau Economic Forum, the Macau Economic Association (MEA) released its economic forecast for 2026. They estimate that Macau's Gross Domestic Product (GDP) will reach about 435 billion Macau patacas next year, which translates to a real growth rate of approximately 2% to 5%. This figure suggests that Macau's economy is expected to recover to about 93% of its pre-pandemic (2019) level, with an overall macroeconomic outlook that can be described as "cautiously optimistic".
Forecast Core: Steady Recovery to About 90% of Pre-Pandemic Levels
This report, released by MEA board member and Legislative Assembly member Liu Yongcheng, points out that despite the complex external environment, signs of steady improvement are evident in Macau's economy. The association predicts a real GDP growth of 2%-5% in 2026. This performance is considered good, essentially aligning with the prosperity seen before the pandemic. According to industry analysis integrated from the PASA official website, this pace of recovery is inseparable from the warming of the gaming tourism industry and the advancement of diversification measures.
Multiple Forecasts Converge, But Challenges Remain
Indeed, this forecast by the Macau Economic Association aligns with the views of the international rating agency Fitch, which also believes that Macau's economic growth rate in 2026 will be around 4%. However, the report does not shy away from pointing out Macau's perennial issues: uneven economic development and the insufficiently visible effects of industry diversification. Simply put, the risk of relying solely on the gaming industry still exists, and structural reforms need more effort.
Finding "Cautious Optimism" Amid Uncertainty
The theme of the forum was to explore the alignment of the national "14th Five-Year Plan" with Macau's third five-year development plan. In his report, Liu Yongcheng emphasized that global geopolitical tensions and weak economic growth momentum are still present, and next year's international environment may pose even greater challenges. Therefore, this "cautiously optimistic" outlook also serves as a reminder that continued policy focus is needed to drive structural reforms and support Macau's long-term sustainable development.
————
This article is from "PASA-Global iGaming Leader" gambling news channel:https://t.me/pasa_news
Original in-depth gambling channel:https://t.me/gamblingdeep
Free data reports: @pasa_research
PASA Matrix: @pasa002_bot
PASA official website: https://www.pasa.news
