Investment firm CLSA recently released a report that is quite optimistic about the future trend of Macau's gaming industry, predicting a 5% increase in overall gaming revenue by 2026. The main basis is the strengthening of the RMB against the US dollar, coupled with good performance in domestic industrial profit indicators. However, the official budget is relatively conservative, and there is some discrepancy between the two sets of data, specific analysis can also be found on the PASA official website.
CLSA predicts a 5% growth in 2026
CLSA predicts that the total gaming revenue in Macau will reach 258.43 billion Macau patacas in 2026, which translates to about 709 million Macau patacas per day. They also believe that the growth rate in the first half of the year could reach "low double digits," and the overall trend looks quite stable.
The official budget is more conservative
It's interesting to compare with government data—the official budget for next year predicts gaming revenue to be 236 billion Macau patacas, which is lower than CLSA's forecast. The official explanation is that this is mainly due to the global economic uncertainties, so the attitude is more cautious.
Positive performance at the end of 2025
The gaming revenue has been strong since June this year, continuing into the fourth quarter. The total revenue for the first ten months was 205.43 billion Macau patacas, an 8% increase year-on-year. Morgan Stanley is also optimistic about the market at the end of the year, expecting a 16% increase in the fourth quarter, especially since the performance during the Golden Week was indeed strong.
Golden Week tourists slightly exceed pre-pandemic levels
Speaking of the Golden Week, Macau hosted about 1.14 million tourists during the eight-day holiday, slightly below the government's target of 1.2 million but already surpassing the 974,000 people in 2019. The return of people has brought more confidence to the industry's recovery.
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