Gambling law expert Marie Antonette Quiogue pointed out that despite the global transaction volume of prediction markets reaching over $2 billion, such platforms are still considered illegal gambling activities in the Philippines. According to current Philippine law, any betting involving probability outcomes must obtain a license from PAGCOR, and no licenses have been issued to any prediction market platforms yet. The legal framework lacks a regulatory basis for "event futures contracts," civil law stipulates that gambling contracts are invalid, and election law strictly prohibits political betting. Experts say the only legal form is a no-stake prediction market, but it lacks practical utility, and future reforms will depend on new legislation classifying event contracts as financial instruments.
Global Development and Local Restrictions
Prediction markets are rapidly developing globally, with transaction volumes breaking $2 billion in mid-October, and platforms like Polymarket receiving mainstream institutional investments. However, Philippine gambling laws clearly stipulate that any betting involving probability outcomes falls under the category of gambling and must obtain a PAGCOR regulatory license to operate. Currently, no prediction market platform has been granted a license in the Philippines, making real-money prediction markets illegal in the country.
Multiple Legal Barriers
The Philippine legal system faces three obstacles: the Securities Law lacks the concept of "event futures contracts," making it impossible to register with the Securities and Exchange Commission; civil law stipulates that gambling contracts are invalid and unenforceable; election law strictly prohibits betting on political outcomes. Experts point out that the only legal form is a no-stake prediction market, but it only has academic significance after losing the incentive mechanism.
Regulatory Status and Future Possibilities
PAGCOR, as the regulatory body, has not opened up licenses for prediction markets, and the existing legal framework considers them as gambling. Experts believe that if a domestic commodity or futures market is established in the future, it might be possible to classify event contracts as financial instruments through new legislation, but there is currently no specific timetable or policy direction.
