On May 28, 2025, a gunshot shattered the brief tranquility at the Thai-Cambodian border. A Cambodian soldier fell, and relations between the two countries plummeted to a freezing point. This sudden conflict at the Poipet-Aranyaprathet border quickly triggered political shockwaves.
Weeks later, Thai police raided the mansion of a major scam ring leader, Fu Guoan, while Cambodia launched a nationwide "lightning" anti-fraud sweep within 48 hours. However, as political figures tore into each other, family feuds were exposed, and the grey economy was hit, a question emerged: Was this "border bloodshed" a spontaneous conflict, or a pre-scripted political maneuver?
I. From "Accidental Killing" to Political Earthquake, Border Gunfire Shatters Brotherhood
The relationship between Thailand and Cambodia had reached a "golden age" during the era of former Prime Minister Hun Sen and Thaksin. Thaksin had been exiled to Cambodia multiple times, with Hun Sen personally accommodating him; Thaksin's first visit after his 2024 parole was also to Hun Sen, whom he considered "like family." However, this brotherhood was shattered by a "phone scandal."
According to Thai media, in June 2025, a 9-minute call between Thai Deputy Prime Minister Petongtan and Hun Sen, suspected to be a setup by the Cambodian side, was widely circulated, causing strong dissatisfaction within the Thai military. During the call, Petongtan mentioned that the border tension was due to a military misjudgment, speaking in a somewhat "weak" tone. This act was seen as disrespectful to the Thai military, leading directly to his suspension by the Constitutional Court and nearly causing the coalition government to collapse.
The issue is: Why did Cambodia not apologize for the border incident, and why choose to expose this recording during a "diplomatic thawing period"? Was there an intention to stir up Thai domestic politics and strategically position themselves amidst the border grey market?
II. Break in the Scam Industry Chain, Grey Economy as the Core Rift
The current Thai-Cambodian border conflict is not merely about diplomatic friction; at its core, it revolves around the control of a multi-billion-dollar grey economy.
Centered around Poipet, the scam and underground gambling industries are significant "informal pillars" of the Cambodian economy. The United Nations estimates that the grey economy could contribute 40%-60% to the country's GDP. Fu Guoan, dubbed the "Godfather of Poipet" by Thai authorities, controls a vast system integrating scams, gambling, and cryptocurrency laundering. His influence extends not only within Cambodia but also to Thailand, the Philippines, and southern China.
When Petongtan attempted to push for the legalization of casinos and simultaneously cut off energy and network supplies at several Cambodian-Thai border ports, he effectively shook the core of Cambodia's grey industry. Was the "accidental killing" merely a coincidence, or was it a "permitted friction" after the grey market interests were threatened? This is a question raised by many analysts.
III. Hun Sen and Hun Manet: Father-Son Collaboration or Power Division?
The attitude of the Cambodian side is more intriguing. After the incident, former Prime Minister Hun Sen not only did not defend Fu Guoan but "leaked" his close relationship with Thaksin, hinting at his involvement in the border issue. Meanwhile, Hun Sen's son, current Prime Minister Hun Manet, launched a nationwide anti-fraud sweep within just 48 hours, demonstrating strong decisiveness.
Is this a "political double act" between father and son? Hun Sen keeps information as leverage while allowing his son to show a stance of "cutting off from scams" through the sweep, thereby consolidating military and political authority, pleasing China, and stabilizing the investment environment. Thai media bluntly stated: "This is a play of Hun Sen's son catching Hun Sen's friend."
Whether it's "collaborating with the U.S. FBI to trace money laundering networks" or "a joint anti-scam effort by China, Cambodia, and Thailand," the shadow of major powers looms behind this sudden conflict.
For Thailand, cooperation with the U.S. is necessary both for crime-fighting and for geopolitical positioning—demonstrating its alignment with the U.S. "Indo-Pacific strategy." For Cambodia, Hun Manet is eager to gain China's trust to ensure the continuous progress of "Belt and Road" key projects. Anti-scam operations, foreign investor reassurance, and military control are complex goals that can be achieved through a "sweep operation" combined with border conflicts.
A gunshot triggers a political earthquake; a search tears open the wounds of a black gold empire. Each step of the event's evolution is precisely timed, almost making one doubt whether this is truly a spontaneous incident or a pre-written political script slowly unfolding.
Conclusion: The Anti-Scam Operation is Just a Facade, a Silent Border War is Underway
Currently, Cambodian armored vehicles have entered Poipet, and Thai police are investigating the overseas assets of Fu Guoan's children. On the surface, this is a joint law enforcement operation against scams; but the deeper reality is: this is a multidimensional war around political stability, grey economy, and geopolitical influence.
Whoever controls the border grey market holds a "black gold ace" in the Southeast Asian order. In this mixed game of power, money, and sovereignty, a gunshot or a phone call could be the fuse that ignites the storm.
As Bangkok media sarcastically remarked: "Will there be fewer scam calls tonight?" But the real question is—tomorrow, will there be another "border misunderstanding," becoming yet another opportunity to overturn the chessboard?
