The Philippines is quietly entering a dangerous turning point filled with uncertainty.
On one hand, the national hunger rate has soared to 27.2%, with the Manila region approaching the critical line of 30%; on the other hand, the government has announced a $5.58 billion expenditure to purchase F-16 fighter jets, as a strategic commitment to the United States. Amidst financial turmoil, this military purchase appears more like a political declaration of the Philippine government's alignment. Ultimately, the bill is likely to be footed by the Chinese business community in the Philippines.
I. Fiscal collapse, trust collapse: Government credibility is in jeopardy
Poll data shows that President Marcos Jr.'s net trust rating has fallen to 14%, with over sixty percent of the population having "complete distrust" in the government. Issues like soaring prices, employment difficulties, and paralyzed public services should be the government's priority.
However, the reality is: a military purchase agreement worth over five billion dollars not only fails to solve domestic economic hardships but further overdraws the Philippine government's credibility.
It is particularly noteworthy that the Philippine Air Force currently lacks a comprehensive support system and pilot training system. Introducing F-16 fighters at this time, the symbolic significance far exceeds its practical combat value—this is both a strategic reliance on the United States and a strong political gesture towards China.
However, "external postures" are never free. They come at a cost and inevitably look for "payers." The most likely "sacrificial lambs" are those foreign capital groups that hold funds, have extensive connections, yet lack systematic protection, especially the Chinese business community.
II. RCBC Incident: Networks no longer ensure safety
In March this year, the RCBC raid caused a huge stir in the Chinese capital circle in the Philippines. Company G, a long-term compliant Chinese-funded enterprise in the Philippines, not only has complete local licenses and legal compliance systems but also deep political and business networks. However, this time, these "amulets" collectively failed.
Without any prior warning, several Chinese employees of the company were taken away for questioning, bank accounts were frozen, office locations were sealed off, and business systems were forcibly disconnected. To date, the authorities have not provided a clear charge or even whether a case will be filed.
This is not an ordinary "law enforcement action," but a release of a politicized posture: the Philippine government is sending a deterrence signal through "selective law enforcement"—even if you are compliant and legal, you may still become a "strategic target."
The RCBC incident is not an isolated case; it reveals an increasing trend of "selective law enforcement" by the Philippine government, attempting to exert political pressure on specific foreign capital groups.
III. "Harvesting" operation may have started, targeting more than just the gambling industry
Many people categorize the RCBC incident simply as a "crackdown on gambling," which is a dangerous misjudgment. The gambling industry is just the first "target." The real common characteristics are that these businesses conflict with current policy directions in "high cash flow," "strong Chinese background," and "complex personnel management."
In other words, whether you are engaged in real estate, cross-border e-commerce, logistics, finance, or manufacturing, as long as the enterprise meets any of the following characteristics, it may become the next target of "policy crackdown":
Complex account structures, active capital flow;
Employing a large number of Chinese staff or mixed Chinese-Filipino teams;
Having deep business ties with mainland China or Hong Kong and Macau capital.
These businesses are the most active in the Philippine economy, pay the most taxes, and employ the most workers, and should be seen as stabilizers. However, in the current situation where the Philippine finances are tight and there is a lack of direct external taxation capability, the government can only start systematic pressure transfer through "law enforcement cleaning." And the Chinese merchants are just the right "high-value targets."
IV. Instrumentalization of law enforcement: Chinese face four major risks
In the Philippines, "legal" is never an absolute shield. Under the current logic of "harvesting from China + internal stability," law enforcement agencies have gained greater discretionary power, even to some extent being "mission-oriented."
For Chinese merchants in the Philippines, the following four risks are rapidly rising:
Tax retrospection and high-frequency audits: Even if the accounts are compliant, they may still be frozen or restricted in capital movement due to "co-investigations."
Instability of visas and business licenses: Inconsistent policy statements lead to the risk of arbitrary interruption of legal status.
Media stigmatization and political labeling: Chinese-funded enterprises are increasingly likely to be labeled as "illegal," "money laundering," or "spying."
Grey law enforcement and intertwined security threats: Some local law enforcement agencies are linked with underworld forces, forming a quasi-extortion industry chain.
The danger of this "systematic harvesting" model lies not in a loud "sweep," but in a legally dressed, security-named, batch-by-batch, structured "industry netting."
V. Embassy safety reminder: Chinese merchants need to enhance risk awareness
Although the Chinese Embassy in the Philippines will not directly intervene in incidents involving illegal gambling, after the incident, the embassy still issued a safety reminder for Chinese citizens and businesses in the Philippines, pointing out:
"The current public safety situation in the Philippines is unstable, some Chinese citizens and businesses in the Philippines frequently encounter inspections, harassment, and raids, and some individuals are even arbitrarily detained. Chinese citizens in the Philippines must strengthen risk assessments to ensure their legal rights are not violated."
This reminder reflects a broader reality: Chinese businessmen in the Philippines are facing a more complex and uncertain law enforcement environment. In this environment, even completely compliant businesses may become "targets" of law enforcement due to certain political or economic factors.
VI. It's about safety, but also a survival game
All this is no longer just a business challenge, but a survival game.
Facing escalating risks, it is recommended that Chinese enterprises in the Philippines:
Conduct a comprehensive audit of their financial and personnel structures to identify potential vulnerabilities;
Establish multi-level legal and media firewalls, ready to respond to public opinion and law enforcement linkage;
Keep a low profile, reduce unnecessary high-profile marketing and media contact;
Prepare business transfer or phased withdrawal plans, retaining a safe exit;
Pay attention to Sino-Philippine diplomatic dynamics, timely judge the overall risk curve changes.
Conclusion: The beginning of the game, not just a momentary trend
The F-16 contract has been signed, the aftermath of RCBC is still unsettled, but the trend is clear: the Philippines is stepping into a dangerous mode of "stabilizing politics with the US, and transfusing with China."
And you—even if you have been operating here for ten years, law-abiding, low-key, and steady, are not on the "exemption" list.
Don't fantasize about securing safety with a business license, nor expect a few connections to keep you safe.
The logic of harvesting has already started.
Self-preservation, starts now.
