The Philippines, with a land area of nearly 300,000 square kilometers, is composed of more than 7,600 islands, appearing fragmented. These thousands of islands are home to 120 million people, making it quite populous.

The country of the Philippines does not have a dominant ethnic group. The largest ethnic group, the Visayan people, also known as the Bisaya, number just over 20 million, followed by the Tagalog people with over 10 million, and the Ilocano people with over 5 million. Most of them are of Malay descent, accounting for 85% of the total population, while the other nearly 90 ethnic groups are smaller, mostly less than one million each.

Endless familial political struggles cloaked in democracy

In Asia, the Philippines was one of the early adopters of Western democracy, starting from the Spanish and American colonial eras. However, its political landscape has long been dominated by powerful family forces. These families have formed intricate political networks through hereditary succession and marital alliances.

There is no exact number of political families in the Philippines, but it is estimated that nearly 200 political families are entrenched within this country of only 300,000 square kilometers. Here are some of the powerful political families:

1. The Marcos Family

The Marcos family originated from Ilocos Norte in northern Philippines, a well-known local aristocratic family. Ferdinand Marcos, a member of this family, served as the President of the Philippines for 20 years (1965 to 1986). Despite his dictatorial rule and the resulting public discontent, the political influence of the Marcos family has not waned. The current representative of the Marcos family is Ferdinand "Bongbong" Marcos Jr., the son of Ferdinand Marcos and Imelda Marcos. Bongbong Marcos was elected as the 17th President of the Philippines in 2022, marking the political comeback of the Marcos family.

2. The Duterte Family

The Duterte family, based in the southern island of Mindanao, is considered a newcomer in Philippine politics. Rodrigo Duterte, a member of this family, served as the President of the Philippines (2016 to 2022), known for his iron-fist policies and anti-corruption efforts. The Duterte family enjoys widespread support in Philippine politics, especially in their political stronghold, Davao City. Duterte has four children: his eldest daughter Sara, the current Vice President of the Philippines; his eldest son Paolo, a member of Congress; his second son Sebastian, the Mayor of Davao City; and his youngest daughter Veronica, who has not yet entered politics. Despite facing several challenges recently, the Duterte family's appeal among the public remains significant.

3. The Aquino Family

The Aquino family is a significant and legendary family in the political history of the Philippines. From the early 20th century to the present, this family has undergone a century of changes and made significant contributions to the democracy, freedom, and independence of the Philippines. Key members include Servillano Aquino (a pioneer of the Philippine independence movement), Sergio Aquino (leader of the Philippine government-in-exile), Corazon Aquino (a symbol of Philippine democracy and the first female president in Asia), and Benigno Aquino III (the 15th President of the Philippines). Although the political influence of the Aquino family has declined in recent years, their status in the political history of the Philippines cannot be ignored.

4. The Estrada Family

Main members include Joseph Estrada (the 13th President of the Philippines) and Jinggoy Estrada (a former senator of the Philippines). The Estrada family also holds a certain strength in Philippine politics. Joseph Estrada implemented a series of reform measures during his tenure, but was forced to resign due to involvement in a corruption scandal. However, he returned to politics after stepping down and ran for public office multiple times, demonstrating the resilience and influence of the Estrada family in Philippine politics.

5. The Arroyo Family

Main members include Diosdado Macapagal (the 9th President of the Philippines), Gloria Macapagal Arroyo (a former president of the Philippines), and Mike Arroyo (a former senator of the Philippines). The Arroyo family also holds a certain position in Philippine politics. Gloria Macapagal Arroyo promoted economic reforms and strengthened infrastructure development during her tenure, improving the living standards of the people. Her son Mike Arroyo also served as a senator of the Philippines and focused on implementing social welfare policies.

The love-hate relationship between the Marcos and Duterte families

In 2021, Philippine politics witnessed a shocking alliance, stemming from two key meetings. On May 31, on Sara's 43rd birthday, Senator Imee Marcos and her brother Ferdinand Marcos visited Davao City to celebrate her birthday. Despite the raging pandemic, the three removed their masks and dined together in a relaxed and joyful atmosphere. On October 23, Cebu welcomed the trio again, with Imee acting as the facilitator, promoting the connection between Sara and the Marcos family. Soon after, Sara announced that she would run for office alongside Marcos under the banner of "unity," shocking the nation as she was a popular presidential candidate, effectively finding herself a competitor!

Sara longed to prove her capabilities independently, even keeping the details of her decision from her father Duterte. Duterte had publicly praised Sara's exceptional abilities and hoped she would run for office, but Sara ultimately chose to collaborate with Marcos.

Sara's political career has not been without controversy, such as her involvement in a street brawl with a police chief and power struggles in the House of Representatives, but she has also demonstrated strong political prowess. During the campaign, Sara teamed up with her mentor Arroyo to form a team, explaining that running for Vice President was a way to serve the country.

In the 2022 elections, Marcos and Sara won the presidential and vice-presidential elections by a landslide. Imee Marcos, who facilitated this cooperation, called it a "match made in heaven." However, familial politics are deeply entrenched in the Philippines, and this alliance was fraught with risks from the start. After the election, the Duterte camp demanded half of the seats in the Marcos cabinet, leading to friction. Sara was appointed as the Minister of Education instead of the Minister of Defense, sparking rumors of discord. Sara issued a statement to quell speculation, emphasizing the "united team's" hope for national stability and harmony.

In May 2023, relations between the two major political camps in the Philippines took a turn. The House of Representatives removed the former president Arroyo from the position of Deputy Speaker, initiated by a cousin appointed by President Marcos. Arroyo had publicly praised Sara, and this removal angered Sara, who publicly attacked Marcos's allies for the first time and resigned from her party position. Months later, the House of Representatives scrutinized Sara's handling of confidential funds, and due to her inability to adequately explain the use of the funds, the House canceled the confidential funds in her budget for the following year. Relations between the two camps rapidly deteriorated, with Duterte publicly criticizing the House of Representatives.

At the same time, the House Judiciary Committee and the Human Rights Committee urged the government to cooperate with the International Criminal Court to investigate Duterte's anti-drug campaign during his tenure. Marcos had stated that he would not assist in the investigation, but later said he was reconsidering. This move sparked speculation that Marcos might use the International Criminal Court to target his predecessor. After taking office, Marcos adopted a strategy of distancing himself from Duterte, seeking support from the United States internationally, and catering to the moderate class domestically. Both families stated that if the other performed well in the 2025 midterm elections, they would seek "revenge."

In 2024, the struggle between the two major families in the Philippines intensified. In January, Duterte blasted Marcos at a rally in Davao, and his son Sebastian, the mayor of Davao, demanded Marcos's resignation and threatened that he would repeat the family's downfall. Although Sara maintained a facade of unity, she claimed to have been treated despicably by departments within the president's circle. On May 23, the Marcos camp directly targeted Duterte's political stronghold, Davao City, by dismissing the chief of the Davao City Police Department and 40 police officers, and deploying a special operations force to take over security. In July, the entire leadership of the city's police department was replaced.

According to Philippine law, the mayor is responsible for supervising and controlling the local police force. This major overhaul weakened the Duterte family's power and was seen as a public mockery. Additionally, the government arrested Duterte ally and religious leader Apollo Quiboloy on charges of human rights violations and indefinitely suspended the operation of his founded SMNI radio and television stations, which were important platforms for the Duterte family to promote their political ideas. These series of crackdowns put tremendous pressure on Sara.

In June 2024, Sara resigned from her government position and completely withdrew from the Marcos cabinet, accusing Marcos of incompetence in governance. A week later, she announced that her family would participate in the 2025 midterm elections. In October, Duterte also decided to run for mayor of Davao City, forming a "family avengers alliance." The power struggle between the Duterte and Marcos families is a matter of survival, and Sara faces threats of arrest and impeachment by the International Criminal Court.

The impeachment case has been transferred to the Senate, where it requires the support of two-thirds of the senators to pass. Currently, it is in the hands of more than 20 senators. The Senate will reconvene on June 2, and the trial will begin after Marcos's State of the Nation Address. Marcos has not commented on the impeachment, stating that he does not support it. The Office of the President of the Philippines has stated that it will not interfere. Lawmakers may wait for a clear signal from Marcos. If the impeachment fails, Sara may win public sympathy as a "persecuted" figure and run for the 2028 presidential election; if successful, Marcos will face a full-scale counterattack from the Duterte family. The Duterte family, with control over local armed forces and a deep understanding of political rules, has never accepted a "dignified defeat."

The arrest of former President Duterte has caused domestic turmoil in the Philippines. During his tenure, Duterte's iron-fist anti-drug campaign improved security in Davao City and earned high esteem among the public. He pursued an independent foreign policy, reducing military dependence and promoting cooperation with Asian countries, especially achieving breakthroughs in China-Philippines relations.

After taking office, the current President Bongbong Marcos's conflicts with the Duterte family became public. He aligned with the United States, provoked China, and attempted to reshape the Philippines' identity as an "ally of the United States." Marcos began to suppress the Duterte family, impeach his daughter Sara, and cooperate with the International Criminal Court to investigate Duterte. The arrest of Duterte was ostensibly based on charges of "crimes against humanity" related to his anti-drug campaign during his tenure. Supporters believe the anti-drug campaign effectively combated crime, while opponents view it as "extrajudicial executions." Behind this are the complex political struggles in the Philippines, especially the power struggle between the Duterte and Marcos families.

Large numbers of people protested in support of Duterte, expressing dissatisfaction with the Marcos government. In Duterte's hometown of Mindanao, public anger was particularly intense. Mindanao, which accounts for 40% of the Philippines' territory, is predominantly Muslim and culturally and religiously distinct from the predominantly Catholic residents of Luzon Island. The Duterte family has operated in the region for over 30 years, with their own local armed forces. The public highly approves of Duterte's anti-drug policy, believing that although the methods are harsh, they are indeed effective.

Now that Duterte has been arrested, locals angrily denounce Bongbong Marcos as a traitor. His son, the mayor of Davao, Paul Duterte, has threatened to "blockade Mindanao." Historically, there have been instances of Muslim armed groups seeking independence in the region, and radical elements may now take the opportunity to incite "southern independence." The Philippines faces the immense risk of national division.

Support for Duterte within the military is increasing, and loyalty to Marcos is beginning to waver. Military units supporting Duterte have been discovered mobilizing, which may lead to a mutiny. The political landscape in the Philippines is complex, and the Duterte family's deep roots mean that the arrest will inevitably trigger a strong counterattack. If the Marcos government cannot properly handle this crisis, it may fall into prolonged political turmoil, social division, and even the abyss of civil war, ultimately leading to the potential division of the country. In such a case, Bongbong Marcos would become a historical sinner of the Philippines.