Michael Selig, the chairman of the Commodity Futures Trading Commission (CFTC), has had a busy week—dealing with lawsuits against three states and intensively communicating with the NFL about regulatory issues in prediction markets. As concerns about the fairness of sports events grow in the professional sports sector, prediction market operators are also strengthening mechanisms to prevent market manipulation. Earlier this week, the NFL became the latest sports league to collaborate with the CFTC, jointly developing protective measures against manipulable trades. In a letter to the CFTC on March 29, the NFL urged leading prediction market operators to avoid listing "inherently objectionable" contracts, such as those involving referee penalties, player injuries, and other easily manipulated types of bets. Frankly speaking, if even player injuries can be bet on, where does the fairness of the game begin?
NFL and CFTC Join Forces: Injury Contracts to Be Rejected
According to Jeff Miller, Vice President of the NFL, the league has been discussing with the CFTC for months, clearly listing the types of trades they consider unacceptable. Chairman Selig noted that contracts involving player injuries are likely to be completely prohibited. He stated that the CFTC focuses on high-risk contracts—such as those where a player can profit from causing an opponent's injury. If the league deems a contract objectionable and the CFTC has reason to worry about its susceptibility to manipulation, the agency will refuse to approve the contract. Selig told ESPN, "The CFTC seriously fulfills its responsibility to reject prediction market contracts that are susceptible to manipulation, and we are working with professional sports leagues to ensure this." It is worth mentioning that the NFL had previously suspended former New Orleans Saints coach Sean Payton for the entire 2012 season because the team set up a "bounty fund" to reward players for injuring specific opponents, with nearly 30 players involved. The historical lesson is clear, and the CFTC's caution is not without reason.
Meanwhile, CFTC Enforcement Director David Miller warned that those violating insider trading regulations in prediction markets might face prosecution. During this year's Super Bowl, there were suspicions of insider trading regarding Bad Bunny's opening song and whether Amazon founder Jeff Bezos would attend. Miller emphasized, "There is a rumor that insider trading is allowed, and some well-known financial figures claim that insider trading laws do not apply to these markets—this is not the case."
Tribal Gaming Association Fully Counters Prediction Markets
A few days before the "Final Four" began, tribal leaders launched a full-court press against prediction markets at an important meeting in San Diego. At the 2026 Indian Gaming Expo, tribal operators called for a complete ban on sports event contracts. The expo opened on March 30, with four sessions dedicated to prediction markets. IGA Chairman Victor Rocha designed these topics to educate tribal members, stating that prediction markets pose a "threat to the survival" of tribal gaming. The highlight forum in the afternoon was titled "Prediction Markets: Building Alliances for the Battle Ahead," attended by IGA Chairman David Bean and James Siva, Chairman of the California Indian Gaming Association. Bean told iGB that public opinion might give way to legal rulings. When asked if the Supreme Court might review the case before the 2028 presidential election, Bean thought it "very likely." He acknowledged Kalshi's early legal victory last year, but as courts began to review issues related to the "Indian Gaming Regulatory Act," "the tide is starting to turn." He firmly said, "I have a strong feeling we will win." IGA held more than six sessions on this topic that week. Bean emphasized at another press conference, "This is about fairness, about protecting our industry. We will not allow federal agencies to ignore our laws."
CFTC's First Lawsuit Against Three States: A Battle Over Federal Jurisdiction
The expo ended on April 2, and on the same day, the CFTC sued three states, challenging their recent actions against CFTC-registered designated contract markets. The CFTC's lawsuit against Illinois, Arizona, and Connecticut claimed that, according to the Commodity Exchange Act, the federal agency has exclusive jurisdiction over event contracts. Although more than a dozen states have legally challenged Kalshi in the past year, this was the first time the CFTC attempted to prevent state gaming regulators from enforcing against prediction market operators. Selig wrote in a statement, "This is not the first time states have tried to impose inconsistent and conflicting obligations on market participants, but Congress has explicitly rejected this fragmented state regulatory patchwork because it leads to weakened consumer protection, increased fraud, and manipulation risks." In a 29-page complaint, the CFTC cited cease and desist orders issued by the Illinois Gaming Board under the Illinois Sports Betting Act to three CFTC-registered DCMs. The CFTC believes that these responses "misunderstand the nature of the contracts and the corresponding federal regulatory framework." Interestingly, one of the four attorneys representing the Justice Department, Yaakov M. Roth, had previously represented prediction market parties in appeals. At the IGA meeting, Rocha described Roth's involvement in the case as "a blatant conflict of interest." Connecticut Senator Richard Blumenthal criticized Selig's intervention in lawsuits against prediction markets, saying he "acted like a crony of Kalshi, using the CFTC to bully the states." For more global regulatory and prediction market dynamics, continue to follow PASA official website.
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