Macau's gambling revenue in March exceeded market expectations with a 15% year-over-year increase, marking a strong start for 2026. Institutions such as J.P. Morgan and Seaport Research Partners have subsequently released forecasts, generally believing that growth of over 10% can still be maintained in April. However, an undeniable signal is emerging: the high base effect from the second half of 2025 may significantly "brake" the growth rate in the second half of 2026. According to Seaport's calculations, the total GGR growth for 2026 is expected to be 7%, with 9.8% growth in the first half and a slowdown to 4.4% in the second half. To be honest, it's not that the market is underperforming, but rather that the figures from the same period last year were too high, making it difficult to push higher this year.
How does the base effect impact the second half of the year?
In the second half of 2025, Macau's gambling revenue had already embarked on a strong recovery curve post-pandemic. For example, in the third quarter of 2025, the GGR saw a year-over-year increase of over 20%. This means that every month from July to December 2026 will face a "high benchmark opponent." Even if the absolute revenue level does not decrease, the year-over-year percentage will naturally narrow. Seaport analyst Vitaly Umansky specifically pointed out that the high comparison base in the second half will slow growth, "unless demand rebounds or liquidity improves." J.P. Morgan also made a similar prediction, expecting the total GGR growth for 2026 to be only 2%, more conservative than Seaport's 7%, mainly due to the combined effects of the base effect and macroeconomic uncertainties.
Can the demand side offset the pressure from the base effect?
The extent of the slowdown in growth ultimately depends on two variables: the liquidity of high-end players and the recovery strength of the basic midfield. Currently, the VIP rooms are still performing impressively, with estimated revenue growth of 25% to 18.1 billion Macau patacas in the first quarter, benefiting from continued loose liquidity and convenient visa policies. However, the basic midfield is still lagging, about 15% lower than the 2019 level, with overnight basic midfield only recovering to 75-80% of the pre-pandemic level. Analysts believe that to sustain growth, the recovery of the basic midfield (especially overnight high-value customers) will be key. If liquidity remains loose and visa policies continue to improve in the second half, then a 4.4% growth rate might still be stable; if external conditions tighten, the actual figures could be lower.
Operators and investors' strategies
For Macau's six major gambling enterprises, more refined operations are needed in the second half of the year. On one hand, they need to continue to compete for shares in the high-end market, and on the other hand, they need to activate midfield customer flow through marketing and product innovation. Historical experience shows that the slowdown in growth due to the base effect does not equate to a decline in revenue, but rather makes the year-over-year data "less attractive." Investors should focus more on sequential changes and absolute revenue levels, rather than being disturbed by fluctuations in year-over-year growth rates. For more in-depth analysis of the Macau gambling market, continue to follow PASA official website.
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This article is from "PASA-Global iGaming Leader" gambling news channel: https://t.me/pasa_news
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