Macau's total gambling revenue for March has been released, showing "better than expected" figures. According to the numbers published by the Gaming Inspection and Coordination Bureau, the monthly GGR reached 22.61 billion Macau patacas (approximately 2.8 billion US dollars), a year-on-year increase of 15%. Vitaly Umansky, a senior analyst at Seaport Research Partners, noted that this increase exceeded the agency's forecast of 11.6% and also surpassed Bloomberg Asia's consensus of 11%. To be honest, this figure has relieved many analysts, especially since the market expectations for March were not very high. Umansky also mentioned that strong high-end gambling and VIP win rates "may be within the normal range." The market currently expects April GGR to grow by 12% year-on-year, but the growth rate will slow down in the second half of 2026.
Operator share changes: MGM and Melco lead the rise, while Sands and Galaxy decline
Compared to February, there has been a significant change in the shares of various operators. Umansky pointed out that MGM China and Melco International are the two companies with the largest share growth, while Sands China and Galaxy Entertainment have seen the most significant declines. Seaport has given MGM China a "neutral" rating, citing "a lack of short-term catalysts to drive MGM or MGM China to outperform the market, with better targets available." For Melco, Seaport has issued a "buy" rating, emphasizing that "changes at City of Dreams and Studio City are becoming effective," and believes that the stock price pressure faced in the fourth quarter is "only temporary." Sands China also received a "buy" rating, although it lost some market share by the end of 2024 and the first half of 2025, it "has been regaining share over the past three quarters by readjusting marketing and player reinvestment strategies." Galaxy Entertainment also holds a "buy" rating, considered as "Macau's long-term winner," with ongoing enhancements from its Phase 3 project (including the ultra-luxurious Capella), and with Phase 4 expected to open at the end of 2027, Umansky believes "Galaxy's share will see a more significant jump when Phase 4 opens," classifying it as "a solid second-place operator in terms of scale in Macau," with an "excellent balance sheet."
The recovery of the mid-field remains key, high-end growth cannot hide the underlying weakness
Looking ahead, Seaport predicts a 12% year-on-year increase in GGR for April, slowing to 8.2% in May. Umansky pointed out that the second half of the year will face "more difficult year-on-year comparisons," and unless demand rebounds or liquidity improves, growth will slow down. The full-year GGR growth forecast for 2026 is 7%, with 9.8% growth in the first half of the year and slowing to 4.4% in the second half. Currently, "player reinvestment and agent commissions remain high," and analysts do not foresee any market improvements in the short term. If high-end or agency business grows faster than the market, reinvestment and commissions relative to GGR may rise. Although some hope for government intervention to limit commissions or player reinvestment, Umansky believes "this is unlikely to happen in the foreseeable future." Notably, despite strong performance in high-end gambling, the basic mid-field "still lags behind," estimated by Seaport to be about 15% lower than the 2019 level, with overnight basic mid-field about 75-80% of the pre-pandemic level. Umansky states, "For sustained growth, the recovery of the basic mid-field (especially overnight high-value customers) will be a key driver," depending on "continued liquidity easing" and convenient visa policies. "As long as liquidity channels remain open, Macau should be able to continue meeting gambling demand (especially high-end demand), although growth will slow down." For more updates on the Macau gambling market, keep an eye on PASA's official website.
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