When Americans cast billions of dollars in the presidential election through prediction markets, European regulators on the other side of the Atlantic had a starkly different response. In France, ANJ classified Polymarket as "illegal gambling service"; in the Netherlands, KSA threatened a fine of 840,000 euros; in Germany, Belgium, Portugal, and other countries, the platform has been completely blocked. Simply put, Europe is not interested in whether it is a financial derivative or sports betting, it is directly determined - no license means illegal. Want to know the latest developments in global prediction market regulation? PASA official website keeps track.
European Iron Wall: Multi-country ban, the Netherlands sets a benchmark
The regulatory logic of the Netherlands is most representative. Lawyer Justin Franssen explains that Dutch law views prediction markets as "games of chance," and such products are in principle "not licensable." Licensed gambling is limited to sports and horse racing, with betting on elections, weather, and other "special markets" explicitly prohibited. France's ANJ warns that prediction platforms have "online gambling addiction characteristics—and lack the protection mechanisms in legal markets," such as betting limits and identity verification. Despite politicians claiming profits from the platform sparking parliamentary inquiries, the momentum for regulatory reform in the industry is minimal.
Black Market Undercurrents: Bans can't stop demand, user stickiness exceeds traditional gambling
However, official bans have not eliminated demand. RegTech company GCI monitoring shows that even in blacklisted jurisdictions, user traffic and engagement remain significant. Operators evade blocks through mirror domains, redirect links, and social media promotions, forming a familiar cat-and-mouse game. More astonishing is user stickiness: after betting, users return to check their positions an average of 15 times per hour on the first day—a level unheard of in traditional online gambling. Prediction markets now account for 7.9% of illegal sports betting revenue, expected to reach 10% by 2025.
Possible Breakthrough: "Germanization" of financial product paths
Facing encirclement, Germany offers a theoretical possibility. Lawyer Wulf Hambach believes that if prediction products are redefined as "financial options trading" and brought under the jurisdiction of the German Federal Financial Supervisory Authority, new spaces could be opened. However, the prerequisite is that the products must be "Germanized"—complying with the country's legal definitions of gambling and financial products. However, Europe lacks a federal regulatory agency like the US CFTC, and the fragmentation of national regulations makes a unified framework even more difficult. History shows that online gambling itself was once universally prohibited, later gradually moving towards licensing and regulation. Will the prediction market retrace this trajectory, or will it be forever barred? Want to know the latest developments in global prediction market regulation? PASA official website keeps track.
————
This article is from "PASA-Global iGaming Leader" gambling industry news channel: https://t.me/pasa_news
Original in-depth gambling channel: https://t.me/gamblingdeep
Free data reports: @pasa_research
PASA Matrix: @pasa002_bot
PASA official website: https://www.pasa.news
