The US prediction market platform Kalshi officially entered Brazil this week through a partnership with Brazilian broker XP, attracting local regulatory attention. The Bonus and Betting Secretariat (SPA) immediately issued a statement, stating that it is "continuously and technically" monitoring the situation, and emphasized that no Brazilian company has been authorized to operate such businesses. In plain terms, the market has entered, but the rules are not yet set, and it's unclear who has the final say.
SPA statement: Internal analysis ongoing, coordination with CVM regarding jurisdiction
In its statement, the SPA mentioned that the prediction market is part of its internal analysis agenda, with preliminary studies underway. The secretariat has received technical descriptions from industry companies and is handling them cautiously to avoid a regulatory vacuum and ensure consistency with the existing legal framework. Regulatory assessments will depend on the conclusions of the technical analysis and will be coordinated with the Brazilian Securities and Exchange Commission (CVM). It is currently unclear whether the prediction market will fall under the jurisdiction of the CVM or the Ministry of Finance's SPA. In the US, the prediction market is regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission.
Industry turmoil: Tax pressures and presidential anti-gambling remarks overlap
Kalshi's entry comes at a turbulent time for Brazil's fixed-odds betting industry. Since the market opened in January 2025, it has faced several attempts to increase taxes, although most have been unsuccessful, but a tax rate increase to 15% has been approved starting from 2028. Last weekend, President Lula unexpectedly called for the government to unite to ban online gambling, stating that digital casinos are indebting families through mobile phones. Legal experts point out that the prediction market in Brazil is in a "regulatory gray area," belonging neither to iGaming nor within the fixed-odds betting framework, potentially leading consumers away from regulated industries, posing another challenge. Want to stay updated on global prediction market regulations? PASA official website continues to track.
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This article is from "PASA-Global iGaming Leaders," a gambling industry news channel:https://t.me/pasa_news
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