The Spring Festival holiday has not officially started yet, but the data from Macau's casinos has already taken a "deep breath". Citibank estimates that the gross gaming revenue in Macau for the first eight days of February was about 5 billion Macau patacas, with daily revenue down 14% from January. At first glance, it seems a bit cold, but analysts say this is entirely a routine operation before the festival—after all, who doesn't take a break a few days before the New Year? What's more noteworthy is that Macau's gaming revenue in January reached 22.63 billion Macau patacas, up 24% year-on-year, setting a good start for the year. Want to keep up with the latest dynamics of the Macau gaming market? PASA official website is updated at any time.
Pre-festival "cooling down" is normal, analysts still bullish on February
According to a Citibank report, from February 1 to 8, the daily average gaming revenue in Macau was about 625 million Macau patacas, with VIP and mass market revenue down 12%-14% and 11%-13% respectively compared to the previous month. Analysts believe that this decline is "not unexpected" and is consistent with the off-season pattern before the Spring Festival in previous years. They maintain a forecast of 20.5 billion Macau patacas for the whole month of February, still about 4% growth from last February during the Spring Festival.
However, Grant Bowie, CEO of MGM China, expressed a different view at a recent earnings conference: "There is no such thing as an off-season now. The booking trend for the Spring Festival is very, very encouraging." In his view, as non-gaming activities in Macau become increasingly abundant, tourists are no longer concentrated during peak holidays, but rather form a smoother flow of visitors.
January data "starts off well", boosting confidence in the gaming industry
Macau's gaming revenue in January was 22.63 billion Macau patacas, up 24% year-on-year and also up 8.4% month-on-month. This performance not only far exceeded the market's expected growth of 18%, but also set the highest January revenue since 2019. Macquarie Securities Research described this surge as "timely", believing it provides ample support for double-digit growth in the Spring Festival and the first quarter, especially against the backdrop of a low base in the same period last year.
Tourist target raised again, Macau aims to go further
The Macau Tourism Office expects that the nine-day Spring Festival holiday will welcome 1.5 million visitors, higher than last year's 1.31 million. The annual target is set at 41 million visitors—higher than the pre-pandemic 39.6 million in 2019. Notably, by 2025, the growth of foreign visitors to Macau has exceeded 13%, with markets such as Indonesia and the Philippines recording double-digit growth. By 2026, the Tourism Office is targeting at least 3 million foreign visitors, focusing on markets in the Americas, the Middle East, and emerging Central Asian markets such as Kazakhstan and Uzbekistan.
Grant Bowie believes that Macau's strategy of "anchoring on gaming and transforming into a global tourism and leisure center" is taking effect. "More and more non-gaming entertainment activities are landing in Macau, giving people more reasons to visit repeatedly, which is the engine for the city's long-term growth," he said.
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