J.P. Morgan recently released a report that provides a clear roadmap for the future trend of Macau's gaming industry. The report predicts that by 2026, Macau's overall gaming gross revenue (GGR) will grow by 5% to 6%, which seems moderate, but the structural changes behind it are more noteworthy—the industry's profit growth may for the first time slightly outpace revenue growth, marking a substantial improvement in profitability.
Market performance exceeds expectations, with mass market becoming the absolute main force
In the just-concluded year of 2025, Macau's gaming industry delivered an impressive report card. The annual GGR reached 247.4 billion Macau patacas, a significant increase of 9% year-over-year, almost double the market's initial expectations. Especially in the fourth quarter, it achieved the strongest performance in six years. Looking at the data, the core engine driving the recovery has already shifted: the revenue of the mass market business has continued to maintain above pre-pandemic levels, while the VIP room business, despite its unexpectedly strong performance in 2025, is expected to decline by about 5% in 2026 due to a high base. J.P. Morgan predicts that the GGR of mass market and slot machine operations will grow by 7% to 8% in 2026, continuing to serve as the "locomotive" of growth.
Profit growth may reach a turning point, with cost structure stabilization being key
The report points out a more important trend: in 2026, industry profits (EBITDA) are expected to grow by 6% to 7%, likely slightly exceeding the total revenue (GGR) growth rate. This will help narrow the gap of "profit growth lagging behind revenue growth" that appeared in 2025. There are mainly two supports behind this: one is the stabilization of the cost structure as operations normalize; the other is the increased proportion of high-profit mass market business, continuously supporting the overall profitability level. As analysts say, even though total revenue growth may slow down, the momentum of profit growth in 2026 is likely to be maintained, or even accelerate.
Structural transformation continues, non-gaming elements highlight value
The current trend clearly indicates that Macau's gaming industry is moving from the past reliance on the volatile VIP room model to a new development phase centered on a robust mass market. This transformation not only enhances the sustainability and predictability of revenue but also allows gaming companies to better control operating costs and optimize cash flow. Looking ahead, as the Macau SAR government continues to promote moderately diversified economic development, the non-gaming elements (such as entertainment, exhibitions, dining) within major integrated resorts will create stronger synergies with gaming operations, together building a healthier and more resilient business model. For a deeper understanding of global gaming market trends and compliance insights, follow the industry analysis on the PASA official website.
————
This article is from "PASA-Global iGaming Leader" gaming news channel:https://t.me/pasa_news
Gaming original depth channel:https://t.me/gamblingdeep
Free data reports: @pasa_research
PASA Matrix: @pasa002_bot
PASA official website: https://www.pasa.news
