Despite some disappointing data in December, Macau's gaming industry actually performed quite well throughout 2025. According to the latest report from Citigroup, Macau's gross gaming revenue in December 2025 was 20.888 billion Macau patacas, achieving a 15% year-over-year growth and recovering to about 91% of the level in the same period in 2019. However, this figure was still about 5% less than Citigroup's own forecast and about 3% below the general market expectations. The report also noted that this was mainly due to short-term lower win rates in VIP rooms, which did not affect the overall growth momentum.
The performance for the entire year of 2025 exceeded expectations, with tourism recovery being the main driver
Although there was a slight slowdown in December, Macau's gaming industry delivered a good report card for 2025. The total gaming revenue for the year reached 247.4 billion Macau patacas, achieving a 9% year-over-year growth. This performance not only surpassed the initial target of 240 billion Macau patacas set by the SAR government but also significantly exceeded the revised expectation of 228 billion Macau patacas mid-year due to market changes. Scholars from the Macau Economic Association believe that the recovery of tourism services exports and the increase in tourists were the main reasons driving the ideal revenue for the year.
Optimistic start for 2026, non-gaming activities to drive foot traffic
Based on positive arrangements for non-gaming activities and a continuing growth trend, Citigroup has given a clear forecast for the start of 2026:
January 2026: Gaming revenue is expected to reach 21.5 billion Macau patacas, indicating an 18% annual increase. The report specifically mentioned that activities such as the "Music Connection Plan 2" organized by Jiangsu TV and iQIYI at the beginning of January, and a concert by Super Junior at the Galaxy Variety Pavilion in mid-January, will effectively drive foot traffic.
Combined forecast for January-February: To offset the impact of the Lunar New Year timing difference, Citigroup predicts that the combined gaming revenue for these two months will be 42 billion Macau patacas, with a 10.5% year-over-year increase.
Industry transformation underway: Midfield consumption becomes a new driving force, competition lowers thresholds
Overall, Citigroup's report paints a picture of "short-term fluctuations not hindering medium and long-term positive outlook." The growth momentum of the market is shifting from past VIP room operations to a model dominated by mass midfield and high-end midfield consumption. At the same time, the competition among the six major gaming enterprises for customer sources (especially those released by the closure of satellite casinos) is becoming increasingly fierce. It's like everyone is competing for the same piece of cake, and to attract a broader customer base, the minimum betting threshold for midfield baccarat has been recently lowered. These factors together constitute the current basic situation of Macau's gaming industry steadily moving forward in recovery and transformation. For more global gaming industry trends and compliance insights, you can follow the continuous updates on PASA's official website.
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