Thailand's real estate market is stirring again! According to Thai media reports, the latest data from the Real Estate Information Center (REIC) of the Housing Bank of Thailand shows that in the first half of 2025, foreign buyers completed the transfer of 7,167 apartment properties, with a total amount of 28.71 billion Thai baht, 80% of which were concentrated in Bangkok and Chonburi. However, the capital structure is undergoing drastic changes, with Chinese buyers rapidly exiting the market.
The data shows that Chinese buyers still top the list, but there has been a significant decline, with 899 property transfers completed in the first half of the year, amounting to 6.117 billion Thai baht, falling for two consecutive quarters, with a sharp drop of 28.8% in the second quarter. In stark contrast, Myanmar buyers completed 533 property transfers in the second quarter, an increase of 119.3% year-on-year, and the transaction amount surged by 30.9%, with Chiang Mai, Chonburi, and Bangkok becoming their new gathering places, directly due to the earthquake disaster in Myanmar and the tide of asset flight.
The retreat of Chinese buyers, on the surface, includes macroeconomic pressure, tightening foreign exchange controls, and obstacles to cross-border capital transfers. However, market rumors suggest that this may be related to the disruption of the gray money chain: channels for laundering money through real estate purchases, such as gambling, telecom fraud, and virtual currency funds, have been forcibly closed, leading to rapid adjustments in capital structures. At the same time, some believe this might be a "low-level clearance," where after small capitals exit, large capitals may bottom out and take over; some observers even suspect that the identity of "Chinese buyers" itself is a cover for gray production, and once regulation tightens, the entire chain must pause, clean up, or reorganize.
The broader concern is that this not only affects the Thai real estate market but also impacts the Southeast Asian gambling and virtual currency markets, with cross-border capital possibly undergoing a major reshuffle. Ordinary investors face three major risks: one is that new capital inflows in the short term push up housing prices, inducing a trap of chasing high prices; second, the sudden change in capital structure increases the risk of a bubble burst; third, policy tightening may restrict foreign investment in housing, leaving investors in a dilemma.
The Thai real estate market is at a critical point of danger: old capital is retreating, new capital is pouring in, and under the surface prosperity, there are turbulent undercurrents that could trigger severe market fluctuations at any time.
