The Dutch gambling regulator Kansspelautoriteit (KSA) recently reported that since the implementation of stricter deposit limits in October 2024, the average losses of players have significantly decreased. However, while this new regulation has been effective in curbing "excessive gambling," it has also raised concerns about the growth of the illegal market.
According to the new rules, if a player's net deposits exceed 700 euros (300 euros for those aged 18 to 25) in a calendar month, their account will be frozen until the end of the month. Additionally, if total monthly deposits exceed 350 euros (150 euros for minors), users must proactively contact the operator to continue depositing. After the implementation of the new rules, the proportion of users exceeding deposit limits dropped from 9.7% to 2.2%, and even more significantly among young people, from 12% to 1.9%.
Regulatory data shows that the policy has driven a general decline in gambling losses: the average monthly loss per user decreased from 116 euros to 80 euros, a reduction of 31%. The number of high-loss players also sharply decreased, with the proportion of users losing over 1000 euros per month dropping from 4% to 1%. Meanwhile, the total revenue of the legal gambling market fell by 8%.
However, the regulatory body also noted that as restrictions intensified, user interest in illegal gambling platforms significantly increased. The report indicates that traffic to the top 100 unauthorized gambling websites in the Netherlands has increased, suggesting that some players might be moving to the grey market. Although the channelization rate for legal gambling still stands at 93%, this figure is lower than the previously reported 95%.
Data from H2 Gambling Capital is even more pessimistic, estimating that legal gambling in the Netherlands currently accounts for only half of the total market, with the remainder coming from offshore platforms, indicating that the underground market still has strong appeal.
The uncertainty of market trends is also related to increased tax burdens. The Dutch government has raised the gambling tax rate twice since 2025, from 30.5% to 34.2%, and will increase it further to 37.8% in 2026. There are concerns that this might exacerbate the operational pressures on licensed operators, further increasing the penetration rate of the illegal market.
In the coming weeks, the KSA will publish further assessment results regarding the tax rate increase. Analytical agencies predict that by 2030, the regulated online gambling annual revenue will drop to 1.21 billion euros, accounting for only 45% of the total market. How to balance player protection and market sustainability will be a key challenge faced by Dutch regulators.
