In the latest round of trade offensives by President Trump, Thailand is prominently listed. The United States plans to impose punitive tariffs of up to 36% on Thai products, far above the global average of 16%, ranking 20th among the 185 trading partners of the United States and 10th in Asia.
This move is backed by the reality of a trade deficit with Thailand amounting to $46 billion. Although the tariffs have not yet taken effect, the Thai business and political circles are already tense, calling on the government to seek exemptions within the 90-day negotiation window.
Prime Minister Prayut has stated that Thailand has prepared a "strong plan" to respond to U.S. sanctions. He admits that if negotiations fail, Thailand's GDP growth this year could fall below 2%, which would be a further blow to Thailand's already long-term sluggish economy.
Under economic difficulties, the "casino rescue" emerges
Thailand's economy was already showing signs of fatigue before the pandemic, with GDP growth consistently lagging behind ASEAN neighbors over the past five years. Although there has been a recovery post-pandemic, the growth has been notably weak, and structural issues have become apparent. Political instability, low efficiency in infrastructure investment, and frequent corruption issues have led to slow progress in major projects. Although tourism once contributed 20% of the GDP, recovery has still not reached its peak.
Facing a loss of about 900 billion Thai baht due to U.S. tariffs, the Thai government is looking for new growth engines, and the gambling industry has once again entered the policy spotlight.
Deputy Prime Minister Prawit openly stated that the planned "entertainment complex" could be an important means to compensate for the losses. According to the plans of a special parliamentary committee, the entertainment complex will include five-star hotels, shopping centers, water parks, sports arenas, and 10% of the space dedicated to casinos. The first four pilot locations are Bangkok, Chonburi, Chiang Mai, and Phuket.
Legalization of casinos: A major economic gamble
The gambling industry is undoubtedly one of the most profitable industries globally. According to Statista data, by 2024, the global casino and online gambling market size will have exceeded $305.8 billion, employing more than 2 million people. If Thailand fully opens its gambling industry, it could quickly enter the top three of the global gambling market, only behind Macau and Las Vegas.
Citibank reported last year that once fully developed, Thailand's gambling industry could generate annual revenues of up to $9.1 billion. Currently, including Las Vegas Sands, Wynn Resorts, Caesars Entertainment, MGM Resorts International, Melco Resorts & Entertainment, and Hard Rock, six international giants have expressed strong interest in investing in casinos in Thailand.
Thailand also intends to include online gambling in its regulatory system. Former Prime Minister Thaksin once stated that currently, about 250,000 to 400,000 people in Thailand participate in online gambling, with annual transaction amounts reaching 500 billion Thai baht. If a 20% tax is imposed, the treasury could collect about 100 billion Thai baht.
Clash of public opinion and morals: Casino plans spark intense controversy
Despite the huge economic benefits brought by gambling, in Thailand, deeply rooted in Buddhist culture, gambling has long been seen as a moral no-go zone. According to a poll by the National Institute of Development Administration in early 2024, nearly 60% of the public opposes the legalization of casinos, with opposition focused on the social issues gambling may bring: domestic violence, drugs, prostitution, and alcohol abuse.
A 2021 survey by Chulalongkorn University showed that nearly 60% of Thais aged 15 and above had participated in some form of gambling, with government and underground lotteries being the most common. However, most people still view casinos as "destructive to society."
To resolve the controversy, the drafting team of the bill proposed restrictions: locals wishing to enter casinos must have at least 50 million Thai baht in deposits, and each entry requires a 5,000 Thai baht ticket. However, this move was criticized by international investors, who argued that this policy would exclude most local gamblers, potentially affecting casino profits. After adjustments by the Ministry of Finance, any citizen with a three-year tax record can enter, eliminating the high deposit threshold.
Political maneuvering causes the casino bill to be "postponed for three months"
Currently, the bill is under consideration in the House of Representatives. Although the Move Forward Party holds the majority of seats, internal contradictions within the coalition government are frequent, with conservative and military-backed parties causing undercurrents. If the bill is pushed forward forcibly, it does not rule out facing constitutional lawsuits or corruption investigations.
Facing internal and external troubles, the spiritual leader of the Move Forward Party, former Prime Minister Thaksin, decided to postpone the deliberation, turning to "earthquake disaster" and "priority of US-Thailand negotiations" as reasons, delaying the bill by three months.
This means that after the digital wallet policy was shelved and the southern land bridge project was delayed, the casino plan has become another major setback on the governance path of the Move Forward Party.
Conclusion: Casinos can save the economy, but not public opinion
Under the shadow of high tariffs, the Thai government sees casinos as a potential lifesaver, which is not unreasonable. However, as the experience of Macau shows, the prosperity of gambling often comes with a huge social cost. Whether Thailand can find a path that both promotes economic growth and maintains social ethics will be one of the biggest tests during Prime Minister Prayut's administration.
