Macquarie predicts that this NYSE-listed group's online market share in Brazil could grow by 150% in five years, from 10% to 25%.
Senior gaming analyst Chad Beynon stated in the report that Flutter Brazil's growth will be driven by the Flutter Edge technology stack, "It has been proven to quickly impact market share growth in new markets," added Beynon.
Between 2026 and 2029, Brazil is expected to further increase the group's international market share by 1%. According to Macquarie's estimates, this business division (including NSX Group) is currently valued at approximately $1.3 billion (1 billion pounds/1.2 billion euros).
Beynon said that this corresponds to a value of about $12 per share, creating a valuation of $9.5.
The analyst praised Flutter for successfully managing merger risks and for occupying the top two positions in the US through its FanDuel business. He estimates Flutter's global market share to be about 16%, with the UK and Ireland at 35%, North America at 33%, Australia at 40%, and international at 5%.
Globally, it is expected to hold about 20% of the market share by 2030, partly due to a recent series of acquisitions and the Flutter Edge stack.
On Capital Markets Day, September 25, the operator reported that its acquisition of a 56% stake in NSX Group for Brazil helped it secure 11% of the entire online gambling market in Brazil, including its Betfair brand.
The company acquired a 56% stake in NSX for $350 million in September. The transaction is expected to be completed in the second quarter of 2025, including the leading Brazilian gambling brand Betnacional. After the NSX transaction was confirmed, the operator established Flutter Brazil business.
Flutter is confident about the Brazilian market
On November 13, when Flutter released its third-quarter results, its CFO Rob Coldrake expressed confidence in the progress made in Brazil.
He said, "We are delighted to be able to capitalize on this market full of opportunities and truly exciting."
The legalization of gambling in Brazil is imminent, scheduled for January 1, 2025. Flutter was among the first batch of companies to apply for a license to the new gambling regulatory authority this summer. However, the industry faces strong opposition in the country after a series of studies showed that gambling severely affects consumer spending and welfare.
Will there be more acquisitions?
In the report, Beynon also believes that Flutter will make more acquisitions in Latin America. He suggests that the group might also consider "more transformative acquisitions" in the US, seeking more opportunities for FanDuel to enter the retail gaming and lottery sectors.
Flutter has been aggressively acquiring this year. In September, the company informed the market that it had committed to acquiring Playtech's Italian B2C business Snaitech for 2.3 billion euros. The addition of Snaitech and NSX Group is expected to increase Flutter's international market share by about 2%.
