Sweepstakes at G2E
“We were involved in much discussion about sweepstakes in the US, potentially a legal work-around for offering online casino-style products,” Katz wrote.” Operators and investors wondered whether the rise of sweepstakes could act as a catalyst to kickstart U.S. online casino legalization, similarly to Daily Fantasy Sports and the advance of online sports betting.”
Companies on the upswing
“Operators we spoke with still saw Aristocrat on top, with Light & Wonder still making gains amidst a very diverse offering. Despite the Dragon Train setback, we left the show still thinking the sell-off represents a buying opportunity. Some operator concerns remain over impending M&A (IGT/Everi likely more than AGS) could create near-term opportunities for others. Beyond gaming tech, operators continue to battle the ‘peak Vegas’ narrative, while regionals chug along in flattish territory and digital drives growth.”
Missouri and Maryland monthly revenue
“For the month of September, gross gaming revenues in Missouri were $150.1 million, down 5.4% year over year and 7% above the comparable 2019 period,” Greff wrote. “Slot revenues were down 5% year over year, while table revenues were down 6%. We note that Missouri had a more significant impact during September from Hurricane Helene relative to other domestic markets.”
Greff added that for September, “the Maryland Lottery and Gaming Commission reported online sports betting gross revenues of $63.5 million, up 48% year over year on handle of $519 million, up 23% year over year and implying a 12.2% hold rate (up 201 basis points year over year).
“We highlight that ESPN BET generated 3% handle share in September, in line with its 3% handle share in August and July, while its GGR share was 2%, in-line with its GGR share in August and below its 3% in July.”
Caesars at G2E
Also at G2E, Jefferies’ Katz met with Caesars. In an October 14 note, he wrote that Caesars “confirmed significant potential value creation from lower interest rates combined with lower forward capex, additional cash contributions from the sale of non-core assets, and digital and Las Vegas growth next year. Debt paydown remains Caesar’s top priority, though it made clear that share repurchases ($141 million bought back during 3Q24 and newly authorized $500 million program) remain compelling at current market prices/valuation. It also reiterated its confidence in a $500 million EBITDA run-rate in its digital division for next year.”
Day One of the SBC Summit in Lisbon saw industry experts expressing frustration over the lack of progress following publication of the UK white paper on gambling regulation reform in April 2023.
During the panel “Spotlight on UK White Paper: How Far Do Proposed Regulations Go for Players and Operators?”, discussion centered on what increased regulations operators should expect, when those regulations are likely to be enforced, and how operators should react to the measures.
It also expanded to cover the government’s overall response to the Gambling Commission of Great Britain’s (GC) 2024 report published in July and representing the largest data project on responsible gambling to date.
During the debate, Wes Himes, Executive Director of Standards and Innovation at the Betting and Gaming Council (BGC), warned that 2025 looks set to be a “heavy enforcement year. You need to start preparing for enforcement.” He said that regulations such as stake limits on online slots could be coming as early as the second quarter of next year.
While other panelists agreed that heavy enforcement could be on the way in 2025, many emphasised that the potential new regulations would be positive for the industry.
Daniel Brookes, CEO of BetComply, discussed affordability checks, the alternative safety mechanisms included in the UK white paper, designed to protect gamblers from overspending. He wasn’t worried these measures were an overreach, stating, “This isn’t something new; I think it’s just clearer.”
BetComply is a future-focused compliance-tech firm. The company recently released a tool in the Netherlands that combines self-assessment with auditing services for license holders.
Meanwhile, Jessica Wilson, an associate at Harris Hagan, offered a legal perspective and expressed excitement at the inclusion of an ombudsman in the white paper. She said, “The value of their claims is not enough to go the litigious route” for bettors who face fraud and malpractice, adding that “the ombudsman will help that.”
While the new UK government has made little progress in enacting the white paper, Sam McKnight, Head of UK Compliance at Fitzdares, expressed his enthusiasm about the direction the GC was taking the UK market.
McKnight told the Tottenham Report that the white paper was “a step in the right direction” and that the GC has been “very open and quite engaging.” He also explained how operators are expected to meet with the GC every quarter, and while many used to dread these assessments, the GC has been more transparent about the intentions of these checks in recent times.
However, Brookes wasn’t as optimistic about the recent role of the GC, commenting, “In the last ten years, I think £130 million worth of fines were handed out to UK operators. That tells me mistakes have been made. And that comes from two places. The Gambling Commission has a lot to answer for. I think that’s left operators dumbfounded.”
One area of the white paper that panelists universally dismissed was the Gambling Survey for Great Britain (GSGB). While the GSGB was welcomed by the anti-gambling lobby, which implied problem-gambling rates were far higher than previously believed based on NHS survey figures, the online survey has faced controversies for its non-representative samples and potentially exaggerated findings. Traditionally, the GC has relied on the NHS’s annual survey.
While the BGC has recently pledged its support for the UK’s new Labour government, Himes added that the BGC has “challenged some of the findings of the GSGB,” noting that the GSGB represented a “massive shift from the health survey” run by the NHS and, “You shouldn’t be comparing the GSGB and the health survey.”
Ivor Jones moderated the panel. Jones is an equity analyst at Peel Hunt, a leading UK investment bank. He joined Peel Hunt in 2016 and has been in the industry since 1998, initially covering leisure companies, before honing his expertise in gambling.
“If you can’t extend the conclusions of a survey to the public, what’s the point of the survey?” commented Jones on the GSGB study, which has been criticised for overstating problem-gambling rates. “The target rate is zero [for problem gambling cases], which is inherently unrealistic.”
Jones opened up the issue to the panelists and Brookes echoed his concerns. “There’s always a little bit of ambiguity with these things, I find.”
Hagan was also keen to point out the limitations of the GSGB survey, asking industry members to continue “ensuring that the government and the industry are fully aware of the limitations of the GSGB. The Commission itself acknowledges those weaknesses.”
The panelists all agreed that they hoped the new UK government would provide more clarity on the white paper soon, so that operators and regulators alike would understand the situation more.
Himes concluded on the entire white paper, “We have a lot more journey to go on this particular white paper.” He added that its success “depends on whether this government will make it a priority.”
