California tribal gaming leaders sent a clear message this week at the National Council of Legislators from Gaming States Summer Meeting in San Diego: 2028 will not change. James Siva, chairman of the California Tribal Gaming Association, reiterated twice "Yes" during a panel discussion co-hosted by representatives from Connecticut and Oklahoma, stating, "We remain very firm in viewing 2028 as the date for tribes to advance their initiative for an autonomous online sports betting market." Also present were Erica Pinto, chairwoman of the Jamul Indian Village, and Johnny Hernandez II, vice-chairman of the San Manuel Band of Mission Indians. The PASA website noted that the core disagreement in this discussion was not about "whether to do it" but "how to make the pie big enough and fair enough while the market is rapidly eroding tribal gaming revenues from the flanks."
Out of 109 tribes, 73 do not have casinos, but all are designed to share in the chips on the table
The distribution model set by the California tribal leadership for this referendum was deliberately designed from the start to avoid repeating the mistakes of other states. Siva was quite straightforward - "Our real focus is on fairness among tribes, ensuring no tribe is left behind as we expand the gaming industry." This model's institutional foundation is California's existing Revenue Sharing Trust Fund mechanism, which has been proven in practice to allow tribes operating small-scale or no gaming facilities to benefit from the revenues of large tribal casinos. Of the 109 federally recognized tribes in California, currently about 73 operate limited or no gaming facilities—but under the framework of the 2028 referendum, each tribe is designed to have a seat at the table in any future online sports betting revenue distribution.
Arizona's negative example was repeatedly mentioned. The model in Arizona, where online sports betting operators contract individually with some tribes, has excluded many tribes from licensing and revenue sharing. Siva's intent is clear—if DraftKings or FanDuel want to enter the California market in the future, they will face not a few top tribes but a unified negotiating stance of the 109-tribe alliance.
The prediction market has taken away about 5%, which tribal leaders call "the biggest existential threat"
The most surprising data point in this discussion came from Siva's quantification of the impact of the prediction market. He bluntly stated that federal regulatory platforms like Kalshi, offering sports event contracts, bypass the state-regulated tribal gaming system—"This is the biggest and most urgent threat we have faced since the industry was born." Siva estimated that just the sports-related prediction market has already diverted about 5% of tribal gaming revenue. This figure, based on California tribal gaming's annual revenue of about $13 billion (accounting for over a quarter of all US tribal gaming revenue and about 10% of the total US commercial and tribal gaming market), is not a small amount.
Hernandez's wording was more down-to-earth and fiery—these platforms "literally take food out of our tribal members' mouths" because they are pulling players from the physical entrances of brick-and-mortar casinos to those unregulated trading interfaces on mobile screens. The tribal alliance has previously opposed several state bills that only set participation restrictions for specific groups, arguing that such half-measures might legally solidify the status of the prediction market as a "legitimate business."
The next two years: building consensus, observing other states, and waiting for polls
Tribal representatives made it clear that from today until 2028, the main theme on the roadmap is not to rush but to grind. Regulatory pilots nationwide will become the reference system for California—recent legislation in Ohio and Wisconsin on tribal exclusive rights and online betting frameworks were specifically mentioned by Siva. The Wisconsin model is particularly noteworthy: the state's tribes now control statewide mobile sports betting under the "hub-and-spoke" model compliant with the Indian Gaming Regulatory Act, with commercial partners distributing revenue to tribes at a fixed ratio.
Strategically, the lessons of 2022 are still heavy—then, California voters overwhelmingly rejected two non-tribal-led sports betting referendum proposals, objectively giving the tribes a decisive victory in protecting their Class III gaming exclusive rights. Siva's summary carries a caution soaked in many years in California politics: "As we look forward to the next 5 to 10 years, the core is to protect everything we have built, ensuring our situation does not regress 30 years." This means that any 2028 referendum proposal will not be hastily launched before public support reaches a safe level. In the next two years, the tribal alliance's strategy will be education, lobbying, and closely monitoring experiments in other states—2022 has already proven that choosing the wrong timing for a California gaming referendum can cost billions in campaign spending and at least a decade-long policy window closure.
PASA's official website believes that the core highlight of California's 2028 online sports betting referendum is not whether it will pass, but at what speed it will pull the largest single-state gaming market in the US from an old pattern dominated by tribal retail casinos into a new pattern dominated by tribes online, with commercial operators serving as the technical backend and traffic pipeline. If Wisconsin's hub-and-spoke model proves viable in a giant market like California, the voting numbers of the California referendum will not only rewrite state law but could also provide a more significant reference template for the balance between tribal gaming sovereignty and the online economy across the US than any federal legislation.
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This article is from "PASA-Global iGaming Leaders," a gambling industry news channel: https://t.me/pasa_news
Original deep gambling channel: https://t.me/gamblingdeep
Free data reports: @pasa_research
PASA Matrix: @pasa002_bot
PASA official website: https://www.pasa.news
