The latest data from the Brazilian Federal Revenue Service has propelled the gambling industry to an unexpected position—In the first four months of this year, licensed gambling operators doubled their tax contributions from last year's 2.2 billion reais (about 440 million USD) to 4.5 billion reais, with a monthly average approaching the tax volumes of the tobacco and agriculture sectors, each at about 1 billion reais per month. Converted into revenue, with a tax rate of 37%, operators recorded a total of about 12.2 billion reais in the first four months, while the figure for the entire year of 2025 is 36.9 billion. And this is just the first four months—with the World Cup just around the corner, H2 Gambling Capital estimates that the betting amount during this event will be between 20 billion to 25 billion reais. ANJL (National Association of Games and Lotteries) Chairman Plínio Lemos Jorge summarized it succinctly: "This is an industry that is finding its footing."
2.5 million people spending an average of 123 reais per month: Giants divide nearly seventy percent of the market
Ministry of Finance data revealed several key metrics. By the end of 2025, a total of 25 million individual taxpayers had participated in gambling, with an average monthly gambling expenditure of about 123 reais (excluding winnings reinvested). The licensed system has issued 85 licenses, covering 187 authorized websites, but 10 brands have consumed 68.8% of the market share. Greek Betano holds the top spot with about 23% of the market share, followed closely by British-owned Bet365 and SportingBet, Brazilian native Esportes da Sorte, Romanian Superbet, and then Blaze, Betnacional, EstrelaBet, CassinoPix, and 7K.
Ana Gaming CEO Marco Túlio Oliveira, who operates both 7K and CassinoPix brands, expressed a meaningful attitude—he does not believe that double-digit growth rates will continue indefinitely. "This was a market that did not exist before, and now companies have established themselves," he expects this year's growth rate to be between 10% to 15%, after which the growth of the legal market will return to levels synchronized with the economy. H2's Ed Birkin added a more stark judgment: The online gambling market is already filled with a large number of structurally weak small companies, "some licensed operators are simply underperforming, with insufficient infrastructure, and bankruptcy or acquisition by large platforms is just a matter of time."
Gelfi rebuts CNC: "Saying gambling harms people with debt is just jealousy"
As the gambling industry soars, criticism is also increasing. The Brazilian National Confederation of Commerce (CNC) attributes the rising household debt ratio to gambling companies, and some surveys also show that the compulsive gambling population is expanding. IBJR Chairman Andre Gelfi responded bluntly—directly characterizing CNC's criticism as "jealousy." "Retailers are having a hard time because Brazilian families don't have enough disposable income. They see gambling companies advertising and think the money is being taken by us—when in fact they just lost that portion of income." He even added a sharper logic: "The retail market is tight on funds, and it's the same for us. Consumers are out of money, and their betting ability is equally limited."
This defensive stance of "we're not taking your money, but facing the same dried-up wallet together" reflects the Brazilian legal gambling industry entering a more complex period of public opinion tug-of-war after the explosive expansion in 2025. Readers of the PASA official website may remember that IBJR recently completed the leadership transition from Gelfi to Carlos Lima—the new team's government relations background may just be prepared to handle these increasingly sharp industry disputes.
Forty to fifty percent still in a gray area, the government blocked Kalshi but couldn't contain it
Another thorny issue for licensed parties is the illegal market. Estimates by consulting firm LCA commissioned by IBJR show that illegal gambling still accounts for 41% to 51% of the Brazilian market, corresponding to a scale of about 26 billion to 39 billion reais. H2's cross-estimation based on central bank cross-border remittances, cryptocurrency transactions, and illegal website traffic shows that the black market size in 2025 is 16.3 billion reais—but Birkin also admits that there are no official statistics in this area, and all figures are just results of estimation models.
The core dissatisfaction of licensed operators is not hard to understand: Illegal platforms do not have to pay the 30 million reais license fee, do not pay taxes, are not subject to advertising rules, and naturally can offer more attractive odds and bonuses to players without the burden of operational costs. Most crucially, illegal platforms do not integrate into the Ministry of Finance's Awards and Gambling Secretariat (SPA) self-exclusion system—players cannot voluntarily lock their accounts on these sites. The gambling industry has also pressured the government to include prediction market platforms such as Kalshi and Polymarket in the illegal operation list. The Ministry of Finance had blocked these websites by the end of April, but IBJR subsequently submitted a notice on April 29 stating that they are still operating normally within Brazil—meaning the effectiveness of the blockade order is still a question mark.
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This article is from "PASA-Global iGaming Leaders" gambling industry news channel:https://t.me/pasa_news
Original in-depth gambling channel:https://t.me/gamblingdeep
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