Sweden's legal online gambling channels are gradually leaking. The annual channelization assessment released by the Swedish Gambling Authority on June 15 shows that the coverage rate of licensed operators for online gambling consumption has dropped to 84% in 2025—a decrease of 1 percentage point from 2024 and a cumulative decline of 2 percentage points from 2023's 86%. However, this is not the most glaring number. When excluding self-reported surveys and only calculating based on website traffic and betting amounts, the channelization rate collapses to 78%. In other words, for every five dollars spent on online gambling, at least more than one dollar flows to platforms not regulated by Sweden. Another set of hard data in the report is equally unsettling: as of April 30, Spelinspektionen has identified 2,186 active unlicensed gambling sites—preying on Swedish players who are blocked from the licensed system due to self-exclusion or believe that illegal platforms "are easier to win money on."
Two methodologies, one truth: Surveys say 89%, traffic says 68%
This year, Spelinspektionen continues to use a dual-track methodology. The first track is a player survey conducted by Verian from February to March on 6,744 respondents (4,175 of whom had gambled in the past 12 months)—directly asking respondents whether their most recent gambling occurred on a licensed platform. The second track estimates the traffic of licensed gambling websites through third-party search engine optimization and website traffic estimates, multiplied by the "betting amount per visit" coefficient provided by operators, to infer the total betting amount of the licensed market.
The gap between the two methodologies is intriguing. The survey method gives a channelization rate of 89% for the competitive market (iGaming + online betting)—with sports betting even reaching 95%, and online casinos at 68%. However, the traffic estimation method only gives a total channelization rate of 78%. In 2025, the total net betting amount of all licensed operators in Sweden is 28.2 billion Swedish Krona (about 3 billion USD), with the non-monopoly part (iGaming and online betting) accounting for 18.7 billion Krona. Each percentage point drop in channelization rate means hundreds of millions of Krona evaporating from the legal system.
Skin gambling excluded from statistics, but accounts for 42% of unlicensed site traffic
One variable deliberately excluded from the report but cannot be ignored is skin gambling. Of the 2,186 unlicensed sites identified by Spelinspektionen, 976 specialize in online casinos, and 800 offer both casinos and sports betting. However, about 42% of the traffic to unlicensed sites is concentrated on skin gambling platforms—a gray form of gambling using in-game virtual items (such as weapon skins) as betting chips. Since these platforms often intertwine with non-gambling services like NFT and cryptocurrency transactions, Spelinspektionen has excluded them from mainstream channelization indicators.
This means that the official figures of 84% and 78% actually avoid a rapidly expanding gray area. Readers of the PASA official website may remember that skin gambling has a much greater penetration among minors and young adults than traditional gambling products—and these users are also the least skilled at distinguishing between licensed and unlicensed platforms. Excluding it from mainstream statistics makes methodological sense, but the risk of policy blind spots has not disappeared.
Self-exclusion inadvertently pushes people into the black market: The unintended cost of Spelpaus
The player survey reveals the core motivations for people moving to unlicensed platforms. The leading reason is a chain of black humor: after locking themselves out of the licensed system through Sweden's official self-exclusion system Spelpaus, players turn to unlicensed sites to continue gambling. This is followed by the cognitive bias of "believing illegal platforms are easier to win money on" and the category gap of "licensed platforms not offering the games I want." These three reasons form a complete push-pull chain—Spelpaus blocks the legal entrance, odds cognitive bias creates illegal temptation, and product gaps provide a foothold.
The Swedish government has proposed major amendments to the "Gambling Act" in September 2025, with the core direction being to tighten the jurisdiction threshold of "Swedish language or Swedish Krona equals targeting Swedish players." The regulatory authority's spokesperson is optimistic about the direction of the amendment: "We have urged the government to focus on the necessity of revising the 'Gambling Act' online gambling scope, thus we are positive about the investigator's proposal—it strengthens our ability to more effectively combat unlicensed gambling." However, the downward trend from 84% to 78% itself already indicates that the speed of the amendment is being chased by the speed of channel loss.
At the end of the report, Spelinspektionen offers a pragmatic conclusion: the real channelization rate is between 78% and 89%, depending on which method is used. The regulatory authority recommends that the government use the average of the two methodologies (84%) as the official benchmark in the budget draft, while calling for improved measurement techniques—especially in terms of app traffic inclusion and unlicensed site identification. The statistical tools for channelization rate are still being refined, but the speed of unlicensed sites poaching users obviously won't wait for anyone.
————
This article is from "PASA-Global iGaming Leader" gambling industry news channel:https://t.me/pasa_news
Original deep channel for gambling:https://t.me/gamblingdeep
Free data reports: @pasa_research
PASA Matrix: @pasa002_bot
PASA official website: https://www.pasa.news
