The legislative landscape of Brazil's gambling and gaming industry has welcomed a new development, as Federal Deputy Márcio Marinho (Republican/Bahia) has officially submitted Bill PL 2651/2026, aimed at establishing a dedicated regulatory framework for the prediction markets.
This proposal comes at a critical time, following the enactment of Law 14.790 in 2023, which regulates fixed-odds betting, and the official operation of the Awards and Betting Secretariat (SPA) in 2025, as Brazil attempts to fill the regulatory void in the rapidly growing prediction market sector.
The prediction market is developing rapidly, characterized by its entertainment, financial, and technological attributes, which, as it evolves, brings issues such as legal uncertainty, market manipulation risks, and consumer protection.
In Brazil, user interest has risen quickly, but due to the lack of clear rules, the industry has remained in a gray area. The goal of PL 2651/2026 is to integrate these activities into the formal economy while establishing strict safeguard measures.
How do the supervision and control mechanisms operate?
The bill proposes a tripartite governance model, dividing regulatory responsibilities based on the main purpose of the contract.
1. When the platform is primarily oriented towards user entertainment, the activity will be classified as fixed-odds betting, supervised by the Ministry of Finance's Awards and Betting Secretariat (SPA/MF).
2. Conversely, if the contract has investment or financial protection (hedging) characteristics, it will be directly regulated by the Securities and Exchange Commission (CVM).
3. Additionally, the Central Bank of Brazil (BACEN) will also participate in the newly established cross-agency committee for the prediction markets, responsible for monitoring capital flows, payment processing, and compliance with anti-money laundering and anti-terrorism financing regulations.
Through the coordinated regulation by these three institutions, regulatory overlap will be avoided, ensuring consistency in supervision. The bill also explicitly prohibits betting contracts on sensitive events, including undisclosed administrative decisions, non-public administrative actions, military operations, individual deaths, and events that could be manipulated by related parties.
The bill makes detailed provisions for consumer protection.➡️ First, minors under the age of 18 are strictly prohibited from participating on the platforms, all of which must ensure identity verification through biometric recognition or integration with government databases.
Secondly, the use of advertising targeted at children and adolescents is prohibited, including promotions that attract young people through influencers or visual elements.
To prevent public over-indebtedness, the bill prohibits the use of credit cards or any form of credit for advance payments, and requires platforms to provide proactive consumer control tools, including user-set daily, weekly, and monthly deposit limits, and a cooling-off period of at least 24 hours for any requests to increase limits.
Platforms must also display the average financial loss percentage of users prominently on the interface and include clear risk warnings in all transaction interfaces and advertisements: "There is a risk of financial loss in the prediction market, do not use essential living funds for betting."
Impact analysis on the industry
For compliant operators, this bill will provide important legal certainty. Operators with SPA licenses will need to assess whether their prediction products are applicable under the new regulations and make the necessary technical adjustments.
However, smaller platforms may struggle with the compliance costs associated with localization requirements, biometric KYC systems, and tripartite reporting obligations.🔴 Therefore, for certain high-profile events, users may still turn to offshore platforms, thereby reducing the liquidity of the local compliant market and affecting transaction volumes.
Future outlook
The bill draws on the experiences of the United States and Europe, featuring a clear tripartite coordination model in regulating such mixed instruments. Currently, PL 2651/2026 is still in the early stages, requiring committee deliberation, public hearings, and votes in both houses of Congress. Implementation details are likely to be revised, and the administrative department will issue specific regulations within 180 days after the bill is announced.
For the gambling industry and users, this bill will definitively define Brazil's prediction market. As Brazil's regulation of the gambling market matures, the prediction market could develop into a new area promoting economic growth and tax revenue, but it could also become a focus of social risk and regulation. The debates in Congress over the next few months will determine the final direction of this market.
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